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Table of contents
Impact of Climate Change on India’s Monsoonal Climate: Present Status and Outstanding Issues
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Expected Future Changes Under Increased GHG Conditions
Predicting climate change
IPCC SRES emission scenarios
Slide 10
The development of climate models: Past, present, and future
IPCC AR4 Simulations
Slide 13
Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios
Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s
Likely Future Paradox of Monsoon-ENSO Links
High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Scenarios
GCMs to Regional Adaptive Responses : Modelling Path Cs = f(Cl, Øs ) Cs - small scale climate Cl - large scale climate Øs - physiographic details at small scale
PRECIS Runs at IITM
PRECIS captures important regional information on summer monsoon rainfall missing in its parent GCM simulations.
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Impact of Monsoon Rainfall on Indian Food Production and GDP
Slide 24
Tipping in Climate System Low-probability but High-risk
GFDL CM2.1 Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Water Hosing Experiment with 1 Sv equivalent of Freshening Control Expt: 100 yrs After Hosing: 300 yrs
Uncertainties
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Conclusions….
Thank You !