Forecasting, for obvious reasons, often become the most important goal to be achieved. For spatially extended systems (e.g. atmospheric system) where the local nonlinearities lead to the most unpredictable chaotic evolution, it is highly desirable to have a simple diagnostic tool to identify regions of predictable behaviour. In this paper, we discuss the use of the bred vector (BV) dimension, a recently introduced statistics, to identify the regimes where a finite time forecast is feasible. Using the tools from dynamical systems theory and Bayesian modelling, we show the finite time predictability in two-dimensional coupled map lattices in the regions of low BV dimension.

Here we present a system of coupled phase oscillators with nearest neighbors coupling, which we study for different boundary conditions. We concentrate at the transition to the total synchronization. We are able to develop exact solutions for the value of the coupling parameter when the system becomes completely synchronized, for the case of periodic boundary conditions as well as for a chain with fixed ends. We compare the results with those calculated numerically.