• V R Durai

      Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science

    • Experimental real-time multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction of rainfall during Monsoon 2008: Large-scale medium-range aspects

      A K Mitra G R Iyengar V R Durai J Sanjay T N Krishnamurti A Mishra D R Sikka

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      Realistic simulation/prediction of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall on various space–time scales is a challenging scientific task. Compared to mid-latitudes, a proportional skill improvement in the prediction of monsoon rainfall in the medium range has not happened in recent years. Global models and data assimilation techniques are being improved for monsoon/tropics. However, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasting is gaining popularity, as it has the potential to provide more information for practical forecasting in terms of making a consensus forecast and handling model uncertainties. As major centers are exchanging model output in near real-time, MME is a viable inexpensive way of enhancing the forecasting skill and information content. During monsoon 2008, on an experimental basis, an MME forecasting of large-scale monsoon precipitation in the medium range was carried out in real-time at National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India. Simple ensemble mean (EMN) giving equal weight to member models, bias-corrected ensemble mean (BCEMn) and MME forecast, where different weights are given to member models, are the products of the algorithm tested here. In general, the aforementioned products from the multi-model ensemble forecast system have a higher skill than individual model forecasts. The skill score for the Indian domain and other sub-regions indicates that the BCEMn produces the best result, compared to EMN and MME. Giving weights to different models to obtain an MME product helps to improve individual member models only marginally. It is noted that for higher rainfall values, the skill of the global model rainfall forecast decreases rapidly beyond day-3, and hence for day-4 and day-5, the MME products could not bring much improvement over member models. However, up to day-3, the MME products were always better than individual member models.

    • Development of multimodel ensemble based district level medium range rainfall forecast system for Indian region

      S K Roy Bhowmik V R Durai

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      India Meteorological Department has implemented district level medium range rainfall forecast system applying multimodel ensemble technique, making use of model outputs of state-of-the-art global models from the five leading global NWP centres. The pre-assigned grid point weights on the basis of anomaly correlation coefficients (CC) between the observed values and forecast values are determined for each constituent model at the resolution of $0.25° × 0.25° utilizing two season datasets (1 June–30 September, 2007 and 2008) and the multimodel ensemble forecasts (day-1 to day-5 forecasts) are generated at the same resolution on a real-time basis. The ensemble forecast fields are then used to prepare forecasts for each district, taking the average value of all grid points falling in a particular district. In this paper, we describe the development strategy of the technique and performance skill of the system during summer monsoon 2009. The study demonstrates the potential of the system for improving rainfall forecasts at five days time scale over Indian region. Districtwise performance of the ensemble rainfall forecast reveals that the technique, in general, is capable of providing reasonably good forecast skill over most states of the country, particularly over the states where the monsoon systems are more dominant.

    • Location specific forecasting of maximum and minimum temperatures over India by using the statistical bias corrected output of global forecasting system

      V R Durai Rashmi Bhardwaj

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      The output from Global Forecasting System (GFS) T574L64 operational at India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi is used for obtaining location specific quantitative forecast of maximum and minimum temperatures over India in the medium range time scale. In this study, a statistical bias correction algorithm has been introduced to reduce the systematic bias in the 24–120 hour GFS model location specific forecast of maximum and minimum temperatures for 98 selected synoptic stations, representing different geographical regions of India. The statistical bias correction algorithm used for minimizing the bias of the next forecast is Decaying Weighted Mean (DWM), as it is suitable for small samples. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the skill of Direct Model Output (DMO) and Bias Corrected (BC) GFS for location specific forecast of maximum and minimum temperatures over India. The performance skill of 24–120 hour DMO and BC forecast of GFS model is evaluated for all the 98 synoptic stations during summer (May–August 2012) and winter (November 2012–February 2013) seasons using different statistical evaluation skill measures. The magnitude of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) for BC GFS forecast is lower than DMO during both summer and winter seasons. The BC GFS forecasts have higher skill score as compared to GFS DMO over most of the stations in all day-1 to day-5 forecasts during both summer and winter seasons. It is concluded from the study that the skill of GFS statistical BC forecast improves over the GFS DMO remarkably and hence can be used as an operational weather forecasting system for location specific forecast over India.

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