T P Srivastava
Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science
Volume 117 Issue 5 October 2008 pp 589-602
The summer monsoon season of the year 2006 was highlighted by an unprecedented number of monsoon lows over the central and the western parts of India,particularly giving widespread rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan.Ahmedabad had received 540.2 mm of rainfall in the month of August 2006 against the climatological mean of 219.8 mm.The two spells of very heavy rainfall of 108.4 mm and 97.7 mm were recorded on 8 and 12 August 2006 respectively.Due to meteorological complexities involved in replicating the rainfall occurrences over a region,the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF –ARW version)modeling system with two different cumulus schemes in a nested con ﬁguration is chosen for simulating these events.The spatial distributions of large-scale circulation and moisture ﬁelds have been simulated reasonably well in this model,though there are some spatial biases in the simulated rainfall pattern.The rainfall amount over Ahmedabad has been underestimated by both the cumulus parameterization schemes.The quantitative validation of the simulated rainfall is done by calculating the categorical skill scores like frequency bias,threat scores (TS)and equitable threat scores (ETS).In this case the KF scheme has outperformed the GD scheme for the low precipitation threshold.
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