• R Suresh

      Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science

    • Prediction of weather parameters on a very short time scale by an Auto Regressive process for aviation flight planning

      R Suresh N Sivagnanam K Suresh Chandra

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      Forecasting weather parameters such as temperature and pressure with a reasonable degree of accuracy three hours ahead of the scheduled departure of an aircraft helps economic and efficient planning of aircraft operations. However, these two parameters exhibit a high degree of persistency and have nonstationary mean and variance at sub-periods (i.e. at 0000, 0300, 0600,…, 2100UTC). Hence these series have been standardised (to have mean 0 and variance 1) and thereafter seasonal differenced (lag 8) to achieve almost near stationarity. An attempt has been made to fit the standardised and seasonal differenced series of Chennai (a coastal station) and Trichy (an inland station) airport into an Auto Regressive (AR) process. The model coefficients have been estimated based on adaptive filter algorithm which uses the method of convergence by the steepest descent. The models were tested with an independent data set and diagnostic checks were made on the residual error series. An independent estimation of fractal dimension has also been made in this study to conform the number parameters used in the AR processes. The models contemplated in this study are parsimonious and can be used to forecast surface temperature and pressure.

    • Urban effects of Chennai on sea breeze induced convection and precipitation

      Matthew Simpson Sethu Raman R Suresh U C Mohanty

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      Doppler radar derived wind speed and direction profiles showed a well developed sea breeze circulation over the Chennai, India region on 28 June, 2003. Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm resulted from convection along the sea breeze front. Inland propagation of the sea breeze front was observed in radar reflectivity imagery. High-resolution MM5 simulations were used to investigate the influence of Chennai urban land use on sea breeze initiated convection and precipitation. A comparison of observed and simulated 10 m wind speed and direction over Chennai showed that the model was able to simulate the timing and strength of the sea breeze. Urban effects are shown to increase the near surface air temperature over Chennai by 3.0 K during the early morning hours. The larger surface temperature gradient along the coast due to urban effects increased onshore flow by 4.0m s−1. Model sensitivity study revealed that precipitation totals were enhanced by 25 mm over a large region 150 km west of Chennai due to urban effects. Deficiency in model physics related to night-time forecasts are addressed.

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