Hydrographic observations in the eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) during summer monsoon 2002 (during the first phase of the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX)) include two approximately fortnight-long CTD time series. A barrier layer was observed occasionally during the two time series. These ephemeral barrier layers were caused byin situ rainfall, and by advection of low-salinity (high-salinity) waters at the surface (below the surface mixed layer). These barrier layers were advected away from the source region by the West India Coastal Current and had no discernible effect on the sea surface temperature. The three high-salinity water masses, the Arabian Sea High Salinity Water (ASHSW), Persian Gulf Water (PGW), and Red Sea Water (RSW), and the Arabian Sea Salinity Minimum also exhibited intermittency: they appeared and disappeared during the time series. The concentration of the ASHSW, PGW, and RSW decreased equatorward, and that of the RSW also decreased offshore. The observations suggest that the RSW is advected equatorward along the continental slope off the Indian west coast.

The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India. The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts of central and north India while they are increasing in peninsular, east and north east India. The study tries to bring out some of the interesting findings which are very useful for hydrological planning and disaster managements. Extreme rainfall and flood risk are increasing significantly in the country except some parts of central India.

The performance of a dynamical seasonal forecast system is evaluated for the prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region during June–September (JJAS) by using hindcast of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seasonal ensemble prediction system (EPS) model, based on five ensembles of March, April and May initial states for a period of 32 years (1979–2010).

The hindcast climatology during JJAS simulates the mean monsoon circulation at lower and upper tropospheres very well in JMA model using March, April and May ensembles with a more realistic simulation of Webster and Yang’s broad scale monsoon circulation index. The JMA hindcast climatology during JJAS simulates the rainfall maxima over the west-coast of India and the head Bay of Bengal reasonably well, although, the latter is slightly shifted southwestward. Associated with better forecast skills of El Nino in the JMA model, the interannual variability of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) during the 32-year period has also been very well simulated with a high significant (99% level) correlation in April ensemble followed by that of March and May ensembles. Thus, the present analysis indicates that the JMA seasonal forecast model can prove to be a useful tool for the dynamical seasonal forecast of AISMR.