Nachiketa Acharya
Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science
Volume 120 Issue 5 October 2011 pp 795-805
Multi-model ensemble schemes for predicting northeast monsoon rainfall over peninsular India
Nachiketa Acharya S C Kar Makarand A Kulkarni U C Mohanty L N Sahoo
The northeast (NE) monsoon season (October, November and December) is the major period of rainfall activity over south peninsular India. This study is mainly focused on the prediction of northeast monsoon rainfall using lead-1 products (forecasts for the season issued in beginning of September) of seven general circulation models (GCMs). An examination of the performances of these GCMs during hindcast runs (1982–2008) indicates that these models are not able to simulate the observed interannual variability of rainfall. Inaccurate response of the models to sea surface temperatures may be one of the probable reasons for the poor performance of these models to predict seasonal mean rainfall anomalies over the study domain. An attempt has been made to improve the accuracy of predicted rainfall using three different multi-model ensemble (MME) schemes,
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