Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science
Volume 124 Issue 4 June 2015 pp 861-874
India Meteorological Department (IMD) introduced the objective tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast valid for next 24 hrs over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) in 2003. It further extended the validity period up to 72 hrs in 2009. Here an attempt is made to evaluate the TC landfall forecast issued by IMD during 2003–2013 (11 years) by calculating the landfall point forecast error (LPE) and landfall time forecast error (LTE).
The average LPE is about 67, 95, and 124 km and LTE is about 4, 7, and 2 hrs, respectively for 24, 48, and 72-hr forecasts over the NIO as a whole during 2009–2013. The accuracy of TC landfall forecast has been analysed with respect to basin of formation (Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, and NIO as a whole), specific regions of landfall, season of formation (pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons), intensity of TCs (cyclonic storm (CS), and severe cyclonic storm (SCS) or higher intensities) at the time of initiation of forecast and type of track of TCs (climatological/straight moving and recurving/looping type). The LPE is less over the BOB than over the AS for all forecast lengths up to 72 hrs. Similarly, the LPE is less during the post-monsoon season than during pre-monsoon season. The LPEs are less for climatologically moving/straight moving TCs than for the recurving/looping TCs.
The LPE over the NIO has decreased at the rate of about 14.5 km/year during 2003–2013 for 24-hr forecasts. The LTE does not show any significant improvement for 24-hr forecast during the same period. There is significant decrease in LPE and LTE during 2009–2013 compared to 2003–2008 due to the modernisation programme of IMD. The 24-hr LPE and LTE have decreased from 157.5 to 66.5 km and 7.8 to 4.1 hrs, respectively. However, there is still scope for further reduction in 48 and 72-hr forecast errors over the NIO to about 50 and 100 km respectively based on the latest technology including aircraft reconnaissance, deployment of buoys, and assimilation of more observational data from satellite and Doppler weather radars, etc., in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models during the next five years.
Volume 124 Issue 7 October 2015 pp 1573-1598
Tropical cyclone (TC) wind field monitoring and forecast are important for mariners, ships on sea and modelling group for creation of synthetic vortex, and storm surge and coastal inundation forecasting. Among others, a multi-platform satellite surface wind analysis developed by Co-operative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), USA for the TCs are referred by India Meteorological Department for surface wind field monitoring of TC. Hence, a study has been undertaken to analyze the characteristics of surface wind distribution and hence the structure of TC based on the real time data available from CIRA during 2007–2013. The study includes 19 TCs over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and six over Arabian Sea (AS). The maximum radial extent of winds reaching threshold values of 34(17), 50(26) and 64(33) knot (ms−1) in each of the four geographical quadrants has been segregated with respect to season of formation, basin of formation and intensity of TC for analysis. The objective is to develop a reference surface wind structure of TC and examine its validity with respect to physical processes.
The size of outer core (34(17) knot (ms−1) wind radial extension) as well as inner core (50(26) and 64(33) knot (ms−1) wind radial extension) increases significantly with increase in intensification of TC over BOB during both pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons and over AS during pre-monsoon season. The outer core of winds in TCs over the BOB is asymmetric in both pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons and for all categories of intensity of TCs. On the other hand, the asymmetry in inner core winds is significantly less. There is also no asymmetry in radial wind extension over the AS during both the seasons, except in case of outer core wind radial extension of VSCS during pre-monsoon season. The low level environment like enhanced cross equatorial flow, lower/middle level relative humidity, vertical wind shear and proximity of TC to the land surface are the determining factors for the size and asymmetry of TCs over the NIO.