• Md Mizanur Rahman

      Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science

    • Rainfall and temperature scenarios for Bangladesh for the middle of 21st century using RegCM

      Md Mizanur Rahman Md Nazrul Islam Ahsan Uddin Ahmed F Georgi

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      Regional Climate Model of version 3 (RegCM3) was driven with Emissions Scenarios A2 of ECHAM4 at 0.54° × 0.54° horizontal grid resolution in two parameterizations: Grell scheme with Arakawa–Schubert (GAS) and Fritch–Chappell (GFC) assumptions. The simulated rainfall and mean surface air temperature were calibrated and validated against ground-based observed data in Bangladesh during the period 1961–1990. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) data is also used for understanding the model performance. Better performance of RegCM3 obtained through validation process, made it confident in utilizing it in rainfall and temperature projection for Bangladesh in the middle of 21st century. Rainfall and mean surface air temperature projection for Bangladesh is experimentally obtained for 2050 and 2060. This work discloses that simulated rainfall and temperature are not directly useful in application-oriented tasks. However, after calibration and validation, reasonable performance can be obtained in estimating seasonal and annual rainfall, and mean surface air temperature in Bangladesh. The projected change of rainfall for Bangladesh is about +35% for monsoon season (JJAS), −67% for pre-monsoon (MAM), −12% for post-monsoon (ON) and 107% for winter (DJF) for 2050. On an average, rainfall may be less by more than 50% for all seasons for the year 2060. Similarly, change of mean surface air temperature in different months is projected about 0.5°–2.1°C and 0.9°–3.5°C for the year 2050 and 2060, respectively.

    • Seasonal forecasting of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall using simple multiple regression model

      Md Mizanur Rahman M Rafiuddin Md Mahbub Alam

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      In this paper, the development of a statistical forecasting method for summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh is described. Predictors for Bangladesh summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall were identified from the large scale ocean–atmospheric circulation variables (i.e., sea-surface temperature, surface air temperature and sea level pressure). The predictors exhibited a significant relationship with Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall during the period 1961–2007. After carrying out a detailed analysis of various global climate datasets; three predictors were selected. The model performance was evaluated during the period 1977–2007. The model showed better performance in their hindcast seasonal monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh. The RMSE and Heidke skill score for 31 years was 8.13 and 0.37, respectively, and the correlation between the predicted and observed rainfall was 0.74. The BIAS of the forecasts (% of long period average, LPA) was −0.85 and Hit score was 58%. The experimental forecasts for the year 2008 summer monsoon rainfall based on the model were also found to be in good agreement with the observation.

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