• Md Mahbub Alam

      Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science

    • Seasonal forecasting of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall using simple multiple regression model

      Md Mizanur Rahman M Rafiuddin Md Mahbub Alam

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      In this paper, the development of a statistical forecasting method for summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh is described. Predictors for Bangladesh summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall were identified from the large scale ocean–atmospheric circulation variables (i.e., sea-surface temperature, surface air temperature and sea level pressure). The predictors exhibited a significant relationship with Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall during the period 1961–2007. After carrying out a detailed analysis of various global climate datasets; three predictors were selected. The model performance was evaluated during the period 1977–2007. The model showed better performance in their hindcast seasonal monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh. The RMSE and Heidke skill score for 31 years was 8.13 and 0.37, respectively, and the correlation between the predicted and observed rainfall was 0.74. The BIAS of the forecasts (% of long period average, LPA) was −0.85 and Hit score was 58%. The experimental forecasts for the year 2008 summer monsoon rainfall based on the model were also found to be in good agreement with the observation.

    • Decomposition of wind speed fluctuations at different time scales

      Qinmin Zheng S Rehman Md Mahbub Alam L M Alhems A Lashin

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      Understanding the inherent features of wind speed (variability on different time scales) has become critical for assured wind power availability, grid stability, and effective power management. The study utilizes the wavelet, autocorrelation, and FFT (fast Fourier transform) techniques to analyze and assimilate the fluctuating nature of wind speed data collected over a period of 29–42 years at different locations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The analyses extracted the intrinsic features of wind speed, including the long-term mean wind speed and fluctuations at different time scales (periods), which is critical for meteorological purposes including wind power resource assessment and weather forecasting. The longterm mean wind speed varied between 1.45 m/s at Mecca station and 3.73 m/s at Taif. The annual variation is the largest (±0.97 m/s) at Taif and the smallest (±0.25 m/s) at Mecca. Similarly, the wind speed fluctuation with different periods was also discussed in detail. The spectral characteristics obtained using FFT reveal that Al-Baha, Najran, Taif and Wadi-Al-Dawasser having a sharp peak at a frequency f = 0.00269 (1/day) retain a more regular annual repetition of wind speed than Bisha, Khamis-Mushait, Madinah, Mecca, and Sharourah. Based on the autocorrelation analysis and FFT results, the stations are divided into three groups: (i) having strong annual modulations (Al-Baha, Najran, Taif and Wadi-Al-Dawasser), (ii) having comparable annual and half-yearly modulations (Bisha, Khamis-Mushait, and Mecca) and (iii) having annual modulation moderately prominent (Madinah and Sharourah).

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