Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science
Volume 118 Issue 4 August 2009 pp 295-307
The large-scale vegetation fires instigated by the local farmers during the dry period of the major El Ni˜no event in 1997 can be considered as one of the worst environmental disasters that have occurred in southeast Asia in recent history. This study investigated the local meteorology characteristics of an equatorial environment within a domain that includes the northwestern part of Borneo from the 17 to 27 September 1997 during the height of the haze episode by utilizing a limited area three-dimensional meteorological and dispersion model, The Air Pollution Model (TAPM).
Daily land and sea breeze conditions near the northwestern coast of Borneo in the state ofSarawak, Malaysia were predicted with moderate success by the index of agreement of less than one between the observed and simulated values for wind speed and a slight overprediction of 2.3 of the skill indicator that evaluates the standard deviation to the observed values. The innermost domain of study comprises an area of 24,193 km2, from approximately 109°E to 111°E, and from 1°N to 2.3°N, which includes a part of the South China Sea. Tracer analysis of air particles that were sourced in the state of Sarawak on the island of Borneo verified the existence of the landward and shoreward movements of the air during the simulation of the low level wind field. Polluted air particles were transported seawards during night-time, and landwards during daytime, highlighting the recirculation features of aged and newer air particles during the length of eleven days throughout the model simulation. Near calm conditions at low levels were simulated by the trajectory analysis from midnight to mid-day on the 22 of September 1997. Low-level turbulence within the planetary boundary layer in terms of the total kinetic energy was weak, congruent with the weak strength of low level winds that reduced the ability of the air to transport the pollutants.
Statistical evaluation showed that parameters such as the systematic RMSE and unsystematic RMSE between the observed and simulated values indicated the modest skill of the model in simulating the low level winds. Otherwise, the equatorial meteorological parameters such as wind speed and temperature were successfully simulated by the model with comparatively high correlation coefficients, lower RMSEs and moderately high indices of agreement with observed values.
Volume 121 Issue 2 April 2012 pp 317-327
The performance of four different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for simulating three heavy rainfall episodes over the southern peninsular Malaysia during the winter monsoon of 2006/2007 were examined. The modelled rainfall was compared with the 3-hourly satellite observation and objectively scored using a verification technique called the acuity–fidelity. The technique is based on minimization of a cost function that is calculated from four parameters taking into account errors in distance, time, intensity, and missed events. All simulations were made for 72 hours for the three episodes starting at 1200 UTC 17 December 2006, 1200 UTC 24 December 2006 and 1200 UTC 11 January 2007, respectively. The four different CPSs used are the new Kain–Fritsch scheme (KF2), the Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme (BMJ), the Grell–Devenyi ensemble scheme (GD) and the older Kain–Fritsch scheme (KF1). While the BMJ scheme shows some success in the second and third episodes, it shows high location errors in the first episode, leading to high acuity errors. The GD, KF2 and KF1 schemes performed poorly, although both the BMJ and GD schemes simulated the observed drastic increase of rainfall at 2100 UTC 18 December 2006 during the first episode. Overall, the KF1 and KF2 schemes produced positive biases in terms of coverage, while the GD scheme showed persistent location bias, producing a scattered line of precipitation over the eastern coastline of peninsular Malaysia. Although the BMJ scheme has better results, its poor performance for the first episode suggests that suitability of CPS may be case dependent.