• M Sharma

Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science

• Physico-chemical conditions of ore deposition in Malanjkhand copper sulphide deposit

Heating and freezing studies on fluid inclusions in quartz from mineralized quartzfeldspar reef reveal the presence of type A CO2-H2O (H2O&gt;50% by volume), type B CO2-H2O (H2O&lt;50% by volume), type C pure CO2 and type D pure aqueous inclusions. Types A, B and C are primary and/or psuedo-secondary inclusions while type D are secondary. Types A and B homogenize on heating into different phases at similar temperatures ranging between 307 and 476°C, indicating entrapment from boiling hydrothermal solutions. Type D inclusions homogenize into a liquid phase at temperatures between 88 and 196°C. Boiling of hydrothermal solutions led to the formation of a CO2-rich phase of low density and salinity that coexisted with another dense and saline aqueous phase with very little CO2 dissolved in it. Ore and gangue mineral assemblage of primary ores indicate that ore deposition was characterized by logfO2=−34.4 to −30.2 atm, logfS2=−11.6 to −8.8 atm and pH=4.5 to 6.5.

• Performance of numerical weather prediction models in predicting track of recurving cyclone Vayu over Arabian Sea during June 2019

A tropical cyclone (TC) Vayu developed over the Arabian Sea during June, 2019. It followed a northward track from southeast Arabian Sea to northeast Arabian Sea close to Gujarat coast during 10–12 June 2019 as a very severe cyclonic storm. It skirted south Gujarat coast by recurving west-northwestwards during 13th–14th June and again made a northeastward recurvature on 16th June towards Gujarat coast. However, it weakened over Sea on 17th. There was large divergence among various models in predicting the track of TC Vayu leading to over warning for Gujarat state and also delay in dewarning leading to evacuation of people from coastal region. Hence, a study has thus been taken up to analyze the performance of various numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in forecasting the track of TC Vayu so as to find out the reason for above limitation of NWP models. Results suggest that there is a need to relook into the existing multi-model ensemble (MME) technique which outperforms individual models in track forecasting. There is also a need to improve the individual deterministic model guidance so as to suitably represent the interaction between mid-latitude westerlies with the TC and steering anticyclone by improving the initial and boundary conditions through augmented direct and remotely sensed observations over the Arabian Sea and their assimilation in NWP models.

$\bf{Highlights}$

$\bullet$ The multiple interactions among the wind fields of TC Vayu, middle latitude westerlies and anticyclones over central India & Arabian Peninsula led to the unique track of Vayu with two recurvatures in its life cycle.

$\bullet$ The prediction of time and point of recurvature in the track of TCs is still a challenge for the NWP models and hence the operational forecast, as models could not represent the interaction of mid-latitude westerlies with the TC and steering anticyclone over either side of the TC.

$\bullet$ Comparing the average track forecast errors of different models and multi-model ensemble (MME) for the recurving TCs during 2009–2019, the MME shows minimum average track forecast error. However, the consistency in MME based track forecast decreases with increase in lead period.

$\bullet$ There is a need to look into the existing MME and improve it by re-defining the best constituent members and improving the performance of individual models through augmentation of direct & remotely sensed observations, data assimilation and the physical processes in the model.

• Comparative analysis of vital parameters of extremely severe cyclonic storms Phailin and Hudhud over the Bay of Bengal

Two extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCSs) Phailin and Hudhud developed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during October 2013 and 2014 and crossed the east coast of India near Gopalpur (Odisha) and Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) at 1700 UTC of 12th October 2013 and 0700 UTC of 12th October 2014, respectively, causing immense loss of property. Considering the devastating effect associated with the typical characteristics of the two tropical cyclones (TCs) and their occurrence during same period of the post-monsoon season, a study has been undertaken to compare the vital parameters including location, movement, intensity, size, etc., of these TCs. The results of this study can be utilized for better understanding and prediction of structural characteristics of TCs over the north Indian Ocean (NIO) and hence the associated adverse weather like heavy rain, gale wind and storm surge. The higher intensity,higher rate of intensification, longer duration in very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) or higher stage, lower rate of decay after landfall and larger size were the typical characteristics in the case of TC Phailin leading to its higher damage potential in terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and hence higher loss interms of power dissipation index (PDI) as compared to TC Hudhud.

$\bf{Highlights}$

$\bullet$ The damage potential and losses were higher in case of tropical cyclone (TC) Phailin due to higher intensity, rapid intensification, longer duration in very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS)/extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) stage, lower rate of decay after landfall and larger size as compared to TC Hudhud.

$\bullet$ The introduction of Doppler Weather Radars in recent years and improved modelling capabilities blended with subjective value addition through synoptic guidance enabled IMD to accurately monitor the track, intensity and landfall characteristics of these TCs.

$\bullet$ Though, the track forecast difficulty was higher in case of Hudhud as compared to Phailin, the errors were less in Hudhud and its forecast was more skillful due to improvements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) modelling in 2014. However, the intensity forecast difficulty was higher in case of Phailin as compared to Hudhud due to rapid intensification which could not be predicted by the dynamical and statistical models of India Meteorological Department (IMD).

$\bullet$ There is scope to improve NWP models and hence the operational intensity forecast especially rapid intensification forecasting.

• # Journal of Earth System Science

Volume 131, 2022
All articles
Continuous Article Publishing mode

• # Editorial Note on Continuous Article Publication

Posted on July 25, 2019

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