Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science
Volume 115 Issue 2 April 2006 pp 203-218
The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa occurs mostly due to low pressure systems (LPS) developing over the Bay of Bengal and moving along the monsoon trough. A study is hence undertaken to find out characteristic features of the relationship between LPS over different regions and rain-fall over Orissa during the summer monsoon season (June-September). For this purpose, rainfall and rainy days over 31 selected stations in Orissa and LPS days over Orissa and adjoining land and sea regions during different monsoon months and the season as a whole over a period of 20 years (1980-1999) are analysed. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of LPS on spatial and temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa.
The rainfall has been significantly less than normal over most parts of Orissa except the eastern side of Eastern Ghats during July and hence during the season as a whole due to a significantly less number of LPS days over northwest Bay in July over the period of 1980-1999. The seasonal rainfall shows higher interannual variation (increase in coefficient of variation by about 5%) during 1980-1999 than that during 1901-1990 over most parts of Orissa except northeast Orissa. Most parts of Orissa, especially the region extending from central part of coastal Orissa to western Orissa (central zone) and western side of the Eastern Ghats get more seasonal monsoon rainfall with the development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay and their subsequent movement and persistence over Orissa. The north Orissa adjoining central zone also gets more seasonal rainfall with development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay. While the seasonal rainfall over the western side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over west central Bay, Jharkhand and Bangladesh, that over the eastern side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over all the regions to the north of Orissa. There are significant decreasing trends in rainfall and number of rainy days over some parts of southwest Orissa during June and decreasing trends in rainy days over some parts of north interior Orissa and central part of coastal Orissa during July over the period of 1980-1999
Volume 125 Issue 2 March 14 pp 1-2
Over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and particularly over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), the post-monsoon season from October to December (OND) are known to produce tropical cyclones, which cause damage to life and property over India and many neighbouring countries. The variability of frequency of cyclonicdisturbances (CDs) during OND season is found to be associated with variability of previous large-scale features during monsoon season from June to September, which is used to develop seasonal forecast model of CDs frequency over the BoB and NIO based on principal component regression (PCR). Sixdynamical/thermodynamical parameters during previous June–August, viz., (i) sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial central Pacific, (ii) sea level pressure (SLP) over the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean, (iii) meridional wind over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean at 850 hPa, (iv) strength ofupper level easterly, (v) strength of monsoon westerly over North Indian Ocean at 850 hPa, and (vi) SST over the northwest Pacific having significant and stable relationship with CDs over BoB in subsequent OND season are used in PCR model for a training period of 40 years (1971–2010) and the latest four years (2011–2014) are used for validation. The PCR model indicates highly significant correlation coefficient of 0.77 (0.76) between forecast and observed frequency of CD over the BoB (NIO) for the whole period of 44 years and is associated with the root mean square error and mean absolute error ≤ 1 CD. With respect to the category forecast of CD frequency over BoB and NIO, the Hit score is found to be about 63% and the Relative Operating Curves (ROC) for above and below normal forecast is found to be having much better forecast skill than the climatology. The PCR model performs very well, particularly for the above and below normal CD year over the BoB and the NIO, during the test period from 2011 to 2014.
Volume 125 Issue 7 October 2016 pp 1353-1363
Indian region is severely affected by the tropical cyclones (TCs) due to the long coast line of about 7500 km. Hence, whenever any low level circulation (LLC) forms over the Indian Seas, the prediction of its intensification into a TC is very essential for the management of TC disaster. Satellite Application Centre (SAC) of Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Ahmedabad, has developed a techniqueto predict TCs based on scatterometer-derived winds from the polar orbiting satellite, QuikSCAT and Oceansat-II. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has acquired the technique and verified it for the years 2010–2013 for operational use. The model is based on the concept of analogs of the sea surfacewind distribution at the stage of LLC or vortex (T1.0) as per Dvorak’s classifications, which eventually leads to cyclogenesis (T2.5). The results indicate that the developed model could predict cyclogenesis with a probability of detection of 61% and critical success index of 0.29. However, it shows high overpredictionof the model is better over the Bay of Bengal than over Arabian Sea and during post-monsoon season (September–December) than in pre-monsoon season (March–June).
Volume 126 Issue 5 July 2017 Article ID 0062
Unprecedented precipitation along with heavy falls occurred over many parts of India from 28th February to 2nd March 2015. Many of the stations of northwest and central India received an all time high 24 hr cumulative precipitation of March during this period. Even the national capital, New Delhi, broke all the previous historical 24 hr rainfall records of the last 100 years to the rainfall record in March 2015. Due to this event, huge loss to agricultural and horticultural crops occurred in several parts of India. In the present study, an attempt is made to understand the various meteorological features associated with this unprecedented precipitation event over India. It occurred due to the presence of an intense western disturbance (WD) over Afghanistan and neighbouring areas in the form of north–south oriented deep trough in westerlies in middle and upper tropospheric levels with its southern end deep in the Arabian Sea, which pumped huge moisture feed over Indian region. Also, there was a jet stream with core wind speed up to 160 knots that generated high positive divergence at upper tropospheric level over Indian region; along with this there was high magnitude of negative vertical velocity and velocity convergence were there at middle tropospheric level. It caused intense upward motion and forced lower levels air to rise and strengthen the lower levels cyclonic circulations (CCs)/Lows. Moreover, the induced CCs/Lows at lower tropospheric levels associated with WD were more towards south of its normal position. Additionally, there was wind confluence over central parts of India due to westerlies in association with WD and easterlies from anticyclone over north Bay of Bengal. Thus, intense WD along with wind confluence between westerlies and easterlies caused unprecedented precipitation over India during the 1st week of March 2015.
Volume 126 Issue 6 August 2017 Article ID 0079
India experiences severe thunderstorms during the months, March–June. But these systems are not predicted well, mainly due to the absence of mesoscale observational network over Indian region and the expert system. As these are short lived systems, the nowcast is attempted worldwide based on satellite and radar observations. Due to inadequate radar network, satellite plays the dominant role for nowcast of these thunderstorms. In this study, a nowcast based algorithm ForTracc developed by Vila et al. (Weather Forecast 23:233–245, 2008) has been examined over the Indian region using Infrared Channel (10.8 μm) of INSAT-3D for prediction of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). In this technique, the current location and intensity in terms of Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) of the MCS are extrapolated. The purpose of this study is to validate this satellite-based nowcasting technique for Convective Cloud Clusters that helps in optimum utilization of satellite data and improve the nowcasting. The model could predict reasonably the minimum CTBT of the convective cell with average absolute error (AAE) of <7 K for different lead periods (30–180 min). However, it was underestimated for all the lead periods of forecasts. The AAE in the forecasts of size of the cluster varies from about 3×104 km2 for 30-min forecast to 7×104 km2 for 120-min forecast. The mean absolute error in prediction of size is above 31–38% of actual size for different lead periods of forecasts from 30 to 180 min. There is over estimation in prediction of size for 30 and 60 min forecasts (17% and 2.6% of actual size of the cluster, respectively) and underestimation in 90 to 180-min forecasts (–2.4% to –28%). The direct position error (DPE) based on the location of minimum CTBT ranges from 70 to 144 km for 30–180-min forecast respectively.