M K Soman
Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science
Volume 97 Issue 1 July 1988 pp 87-105
In this paper, hydroclimatic fluctuations of the Upper Narmada catchment (upto Narmadasagar damsite) have been studied by examining the time series (1901–80) of (i) 1-to 10-day annual extreme rainfall; (ii) seasonal total rainfall between May and October; (iii) the precipitation concentration index (PCI); (iv) a modified version of PCI(MPCI); and (v) parameters of the periods contributing specified percentages of rainfall to annual total. Most of these parameters followed the normal distribution and did not show any significant long-term trend. However, some dominant long period oscillations have been noticed in extreme rainfall, seasonal rainfall, PCI and MPCI series. Influence of break-monsoon days over India during July and August on the rainfall activities of the Upper Narmada catchment has also been investigated and salient findings discussed.
Volume 102 Issue 2 June 1993 pp 313-328
Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) has been attempted over the Narmada Catchment following a statistical approach. The catchment has been divided into five sub-regions for the development of QPF models with a maximum lead-time of 24 hours. For this purpose the data of daily rainfall from 56 raingauge stations, twice daily observations on different surface meteorological parameters from 28 meteorological observatories and upper air data from 11 aerological stations for the nine monsoon seasons of 1972–1980 have been utilized. The horizontal divergence, relative vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture divergence are computed using the kinematic method at different pressure levels and used as independent variables along with the rainfall and surface meteorological parameters. Multiple linear regression equations have been developed using the stepwise procedure separately with actual and square root and log-transformed rainfall using 8-year data (1972–1979). When these equations were verified with an independent data for the monsoon season of 1980, it was found that the transformed rainfall equations fared much better compared to the actual rainfall equations. The performance of the forecasts of QPF model compared to the climatological and persistence forecasts has been assessed by computing the verification scores using the forecasts for the monsoon season of 1980.
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