M S Shekhar
Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science
Volume 124 Issue 7 October 2015 pp 1531-1544
The heavy rainfall event during 14–17 June 2013 in Uttarakhand and more specifically, its occurrence around the Kedarnath region on 16 June 2013 with devastating floods and massive landslides ruined thousands of lives and properties. Increasing levels of water in two main rivers of the State, namely Alaknanda and Mandakini, resulted in the collapse of bridges, damaging and washing away of property worth many crores. In the present study, the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system (hereafter used as WRF model) is used to simulate this heavy rainfall event. The synoptic analysis at different locations such as Rudraprayag, Uttarkashi, Chamoli, Pauri, Tehri, Dehradun and adjoining districts suggested that the rainfall is about 200% more than normal. The rainfall associated with this event is well captured with the model simulation. The rainfall simulated by WRF model is in the range of 320–400 mm over Kedarnath during the actual occurrence of the event, which is in reasonably good agreement with the observed value of rainfall (325 mm) collected by Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology.
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