• Kamal

      Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science

    • Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of NW and central Himalayas and the adjoining region

      Madan Mohan Rout Josodhir Das Kamal Ranjit Das

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      The Himalayan region has undergone significant development and to ensure safe and secure progress in such a seismically vulnerable region there is a need for hazard assessment. For seismic hazard assessment, it is important to assess the quality, consistency, and homogeneity of the seismicity data collected from different sources. In the present study, an improved magnitude conversion technique has been used to convert different magnitude scales to moment magnitude scale. The study area and its adjoining region have been divided into 22 seismogenic zones based upon the geology, tectonics, and seismicity including source mechanism relevant to the region. Region specific attenuation equations have been used for seismic hazard assessment. Standard procedure for PSHA has been adopted for this study and peak ground motion is estimated for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years at the bed rock level. For the 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, the PGA values vary from 0.06 to 0.36 g and 0.11 to 0.65 g, respectively considering varying 𝑏-value. Higher PGA values are observed in the southeast part region situated around Kaurik Fault System (KFS) and western parts of Nepal.

    • Multilayer perceptron neural network for downscaling rainfall in arid region: A case study of Baluchistan, Pakistan

      Kamal Ahmed Shamsuddin Shahid Sobri Bin Haroon Wang Xiao-Jun

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      Downscaling rainfall in an arid region is much challenging compared to wet region due to erratic and infrequent behaviour of rainfall in the arid region. The complexity is further aggregated due to scarcity of data in such regions. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network has been proposed in the present study for the downscaling of rainfall in the data scarce arid region of Baluchistan province of Pakistan, which is considered as one of the most vulnerable areas of Pakistan to climate change. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets from 20 grid points surrounding the study area were used to select the predictors using principal component analysis. Monthly rainfall data for the time periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2001 were used for the calibration and validation of the MLP model, respectively. The performance of the model was assessed using various statistics including mean, variance, quartiles, root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Comparisons of mean monthly time series of observed and downscaled rainfall showed good agreement during both calibration and validation periods, while the downscaling model was found to underpredict rainfall variance in both periods. Other statistical parameters also revealed good agreement between observed and downscaled rainfall during both calibration and validation periods in most of the stations.

    • Modelling of strong motion generation areas for a great earthquake in central seismic gap region of Himalayas using the modified semi-empirical approach

      Sandeep Joshi A Sah S K Parveen Kumar Sohan Lal Kamal

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      Over the past decades, strong motion generation areas (SMGAs) have received significant attention in the modelling of high-frequency records. Herein, we propose the source model for a scenario earthquake ($M_{\rm{w}}$ 8.5) in the central seismic gap region of Himalayas. On the rupture plane, three SMGAs have been identified. Further, SMGA parameters are evaluated using available empirical relations. The spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks is utilised to locate these SMGAs on the rupture plane. Further, the modified semi-empirical technique (MSET) is used to simulate the strong motion records. It has been observed that the study area can expect peak ground acceleration of >100 cm/s$^{2}$ and its distribution is mainly affected by the location of nucleation point in the rupture plane. Furthermore, the estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are comparable with the earlier studies in the region. This confirms the robustness of generated rupture model with three SMGAs and the reliability of MSET to simulate high-frequency records.

    • Differences in natural gamma radiation characteristics of Erinpura and Malani granites in NW India

      Lars Scharfenberg Sebastian Jandausch Lina Anetzberger Anette Regelous Kamal K Sharma Helga De Wall

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      In NW India, large volumes of exposed Neoproterozoic basement rocks are formed by two magmatic suites, Erinpura granites as a late thermal event with respect to the $\sim$1 Ga Delhi Orogeny and the younger Malani igneous suite (770–750 Ma). Average uranium and thorium equivalent concentrations (in ppm) inferred from spectroscopic gamma radiation survey are higher in Malani rocks (Th 47.33 ppm and U 6.95 ppm) as compared to the Erinpura granites (Th 33.55 ppm and U 4.77 ppm). These values are considerably above the granite world average (Th 14.8 $\pm$ 13.2 ppm; U 3.93 $\pm$ 3.27 ppm). High U (up to 19 ppm) and Th (up to 88 ppm) in some Malani granites and a constant Th–U ratio of 7 points to a high degree of fractionation of the felsic magma. Higher radioelement concentration in the east (Mirpur granite) as compared to the west (Jaswantpura granite) is substantiated by geochemical data. Areas to the west and east of the Sirohi frontal thrust show differences, most likely a consequence of anatexis in the eastern sector. A high linear correlation between inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and gamma-ray data underlines the suitability of in-situmeasurements for the determination of U and Th concentrations during a field survey providing basic information for future petrogenetic and risk-hazard studies in this granitic terrain.

    • Strong motion generation area modelling of the 2008 Iwate earthquake, Japan using modified semi-empirical technique


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      The Iwate–Miyagi earthquake (Mw 6.9) of 14 June 2008 is one of the largest intraplate earthquakes that struck north-east Japan. This earthquake has produced the largest peak ground acceleration (PGA) ever recorded. The acceleration values 4022 and 1036 gal were observed at the surface and borehole accelerometers of IWTH25. To understand the cause of this extremely large acceleration, it is highly essential to obtain the detailed rupture process of Iwate–Miyagi earthquake. The present paper estimates the rupture model for this earthquake using the modified semi-empirical technique (MSET). The detailed analysis proposes one strong motion generation area (SMGA) in the rupture plane and nucleation point in the extreme western corner of the SMGA. Using this estimated source model, a satisfactory match is observed between the simulated and actual records. The quantitative analysis of these waveforms provides an almost 1:1 match for PGA values. Furthermore, the variation of these PGA values with epicentral distance shows similar attenuation rate. These results confirm the reliability of MSET and the estimated source model of this earthquake. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to model SMGAs in the rupture model using MSET and provides sufficiently reliable information which will be useful for seismic hazard prevention management.

    • Long-term (${\sim}$40 years) mass balance appraisal and response of the Patsio glacier, in the Great Himalayan region towards climate change


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      Comprehensive assessment of the long-term mass balance (40 years) has been performed for Patsio glacier located in Bhaga river basin in the Great Himalayan region. The temperature-index approach has been employed for generating the time-series of annual specific mass balance of 25 years (1993–2018) using Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE) field observatory data in Patsio region. Results based on observational data showed nearly balanced condition until the year 1999 (+0.03 m.w.e/yr), followed by an accelerated rate of mass loss during the period 2000–2007 (−0.17 m.w.e./yr). This was evident due to the annual rise (+0.7$^{\circ}$C) in the temperature and drop (−122 mm) in the amount of precipitation during 2000–2007. A slight drop in the mass balance (−0.14 m.w.e/yr) was observed during the past decade (2008–2018) which was well supported by in-situ climate observations and published geodetic results in the region. The altitudinal distribution of modelled mass balance was observed well in correlation with the glaciological measurements for the periods 2010–2011 and 2011–2012. Further, seasonal sensitivity characteristic (SSC) was developed for the glacier illustrating the dependence of specific mass balance on monthly anomalies in temperature and precipitation. The developed SSC was used with bias-corrected temperature and precipitation estimates from recently released ERA5 reanalysis to reconstruct annual specific mass balance during since 1979s.


      $\bullet$ Field based temperature lapse rate, precipitation gradient and snow melt factor established for the Patsio glacier.

      $\bullet$ Seasonal sensitivity of the glacier mass balance was studied.

      $\bullet$ Past reconstruction of the glacier mass balance using bias corrected ERA5 reanalysis.

      $\bullet$ Comparison of modeled mass balance with published geodetic and glaciological results.

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