Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science

    • Validating quantitative precipitation forecast for the Flood Meteorological Office, Patna region during 2011–2014

      R K Giri Jagabandhu Panda Sudhansu S Rath Ravindra Kumar

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      In order to issue an accurate warning for flood, a better or appropriate quantitative forecasting of precipitationis required. In view of this, the present study intends to validate the quantitative precipitationforecast (QPF) issued during southwest monsoon season for six river catchments (basin) under theflood meteorological office, Patna region. The forecast is analysed statistically by computing various skillscores of six different precipitation ranges during the years 2011–2014. The analysis of QPF validationindicates that the multi-model ensemble (MME) based forecasting is more reliable in the precipitationranges of 1–10 and 11–25 mm. However, the reliability decreases for higher ranges of rainfall and also forthe lowest range, i.e., below 1 mm. In order to testify synoptic analogue method based MME forecastingfor QPF during an extreme weather event, a case study of tropical cyclone Phailin is performed. It isrealized that in case of extreme events like cyclonic storms, the MME forecasting is qualitatively usefulfor issue of warning for the occurrence of floods, though it may not be reliable for the QPF. However,QPF may be improved using satellite and radar products.

    • Robustness of best track data and associated cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean region during and prior to satellite era


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      There are few studies focusing on analysing climatological variation in cyclone activity by utilising the best track data provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). The result of such studies has been beneficial in decision-making by government and meteorological agencies. It is essential to assess the quality and reliability of the currently available version of the dataset so that its robustness can be established and the current study focuses on this aspect. The analysis indicates that there is an improvement over the years in the quality and availability of the data related to cyclones over NIO, especially in terms of frequency of genesis, intensity, landfall etc. The available data from 1961 onwards has been found robust enough with the advent of satellite technology. However, there can be still missing information and inaccuracy in determining the location and intensity of cyclones during the polar satellite era (1961–1973). The study also indicates undercount of severe cyclones during the pre-satellite era. Considering the relatively smaller size of NIO basin, these errors can be neglected and thus, the IMD best track data can be considered as reliable enough for analysing cyclone activity in this region.

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