INSAT visible and infrared imageries of three cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during the period 1984–1987 were analysed with a view to improve the cyclone track prediction in this region. It was observed that the rotation in the major structural cloud features (as seen from the cloud-top temperature maps) associated with these cyclones in the Bay of Bengal is followed with a change in direction of their movement. This method is seen to be particularly effective when the cyclone is severe and when the major cloud features persist for a reasonably longer time. In the present study, only the direction of movement is forecast assuming a uniform speed of the cyclone.

Radiosonde data from Jodhpur, taken at 0530, 1730 and around 1100 hr IST during MONTBLEX 1990, reveal that the distribution of virtual potential temperature0_v below about 500 hPa has a structure characterized by up to three layers each of approximately constant gradient. We are thus led to introduce a characterization of the observed thermal structure through a sequence of the symbolsN, S andU, standing respectively for neutral, stable or unstable conditions in the different layers, beginning with the one closest to the ground. It is found that, of the 29 combinations possible, only the seven classes,S, SS′, SNS′, NS, NSS′, USS′ andUNS are observed, whereS′ stands for a stable layer with a different gradient of0_r. than in the layerS. It is also found that, in 90% of the launches at 0530 hr, 48% of the launches at 1730 hr and 69% of the launches around 1100 hr, the first radiosonde layer near the ground is stable; the classical mixed layer was found in only 11 % of the data set analysed, and, if present on other occasions, must have been less than 250 m in height, the first level at which radiosonde data are available. Supplementing the above data, sodar echograms, available during 82% of the time between June and August 1990, suggest a stable layer up to a few tens of metres 48% of the time. A comparative study of the radiosonde data at Ranchi shows that the frequent prevalence of stability near the surface at Jodhpur cannot be attributed entirely to the large scale subsidence known to be characteristic of the Rajasthan area. Further, data at Jodhpur reveal a weak low level jet at heights generally ranging from 400 to 900 m with wind speeds of 6 to 15 m/s. Based on these results, it is conjectured that the lowest layers in the atmosphere during the monsoons, especially with heavy clouding or rain, may frequently be closer to the classical nocturnal boundary layer than to the standard convective mixed layer, although often with shallow plumes that penetrate such a stable layer during daytime.

Using surface charts at 0330GMT, the movement of the monsoon trough during the months June to September 1990 at two fixed longitudes, namely 79°E and 85°E, is studied. The probability distribution of trough position shows that the median, mean and mode occur at progressively more northern latitudes, especially at 85°E, with a pronounced mode that is close to the northern-most limit reached by the trough. A spectral analysis of the fluctuating latitudinal position of the trough is carried out using FFT and the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM). Both methods show significant peaks around 7.5 and 2.6 days, and a less significant one around 40–50 days. The two peaks at the shorter period are more prominent at the eastern longitude. MEM shows an additional peak around 15 days. A study of the weather systems that occurred during the season shows them to have a duration around 3 days and an interval between systems of around 9 days, suggesting a possible correlation with the dominant short periods observed in the spectrum of trough position.