C J Johny
Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science
Volume 125 Issue 3 April 2016 pp 521-538
Performance of a hybrid assimilation system combining 3D Var based NGFS (NCMRWF Global ForecastSystem) with ETR (Ensemble Transform with Rescaling) based Global Ensemble Forecast (GEFS) ofresolution T-190L28 is investigated. The experiment is conducted for a period of one week in June 2013and forecast skills over different spatial domains are compared with respect to mean analysis state.Rainfall forecast is verified over Indian region against combined observations of IMD and NCMRWF.Hybrid assimilation produced marginal improvements in overall forecast skill in comparison with 3DVar. Hybrid experiment made significant improvement in wind forecasts in all the regions on verificationagainst mean analysis. The verification of forecasts with radiosonde observations also show improvementin wind forecasts with the hybrid assimilation. On verification against observations, hybrid experimentshows more improvement in temperature and wind forecasts at upper levels. Both hybrid and operational3D Var failed in prediction of extreme rainfall event over Uttarakhand on 17 June, 2013.
Volume 125 Issue 8 December 2016 pp 1509-1521
The hybrid two-way coupled 3DEnsVar assimilation system was tested with the NCMRWF global data assimilation forecasting system. At present, this system consists of T574L64 deterministic model and the grid-point statistical interpolation analysis scheme. In this experiment, the analysis system is modified with a two-way coupling with an 80 member Ensemble Kalman Filter of T254L64 resolution and runs are carried out in parallel to the operational system for the Indian summer monsoon season (June– September) for the year 2015 to study its impact. Both the assimilation systems are based on NCEP GFS system. It is found that hybrid assimilation marginally improved the quality of the forecasts of all variables over the deterministic 3D Var system, in terms of statistical skill scores and also in terms of circulation features. The impact of the hybrid system in prediction of extreme rainfall and cyclone track is discussed.