Ananda K Das
Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science
Volume 112 Issue 2 June 2003 pp 165-184
The skill and efficiency of a numerical model mostly varies with the quality of initial values, accuracy on parameterization of physical processes and horizontal and vertical resolution of the model. Commonly used low-resolution reanalyses are hardly able to capture the prominent features associated with organized convective processes in a monsoon depression. The objective is to prepare improved high-resolution analysis by the use of MM5 modelling system developed by the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR). It requires the objective comparison of high and low-resolution analysis datasets in assessing the specific convective features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizontal resolution of 2.5‡ (latitude/longitude) have been used as first guess in the objective analysis scheme. The additional asynoptic datasets obtained during BOBMEX-99 are utilized within the assimilation process. Cloud Motion Wind (CMW) data of METEOSAT satellite and SSM/I surface wind data are included for the improvement of derived analysis. The multiquadric (MQD) interpolation technique is selected and applied for meteorological objective analysis at a horizontal resolution of 30 km. After a successful inclusion of additional data, the resulting reanalysis is able to produce the structure of convective organization as well as prominent synoptic features associated with monsoon depression. Comparison and error verifications have been done with the help of available upper-air station data. The objective verification reveals the efficiency of the analysis scheme.
Volume 116 Issue 3 June 2007 pp 187-198
Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of the summer monsoon such as north–south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north–east India, along the foothills of Himalayas and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the grid resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons (2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP models.
Volume 121 Issue 5 October 2012 pp 1125-1143
India Meteorological Department has implemented Polar WRF model for the Maitri (lat. 70° 45′S, long. 11° 44′E) region at the horizontal resolution of 15 km using initial and boundary conditions of the Global Forecast System (GFS T-382) operational at the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Main objective of this paper is to examine the performance skill of the model in the short-range time scale over the Maitri region. An inter-comparison of the time series of daily mean sea level pressure and surface winds of Maitri for the 24 hours and 48 hours forecast against the corresponding observed fields has been made using 90 days data for the period from 1 December 2010 to 28 February 2011. The result reveals that the performance of the Polar WRF is reasonable, good and superior to that of IMD GFS forecasts. GFS shows an underestimation of mean sea level pressure of the order of 16–17 hPa with root mean square errors (RMSE) of order 21 hPa, whereas Polar WRF shows an overestimation of the order of 3–4 hPa with RMSE of 4 hPa. For the surface wind, GFS shows an overestimation of 1.9 knots at 24 hours forecast and an underestimation of 3.7 knots at 48 hours forecast with RMSE ranging between 8 and 11 knots. Whereas Polar WRF shows underestimation of 1.4 knots and 1.2 knots at 24 hours and 48 hours forecast with RMSE of 5 knots. The results of a case study illustrated in this paper, reveal that the model is capable of capturing synoptic weather features of Antarctic region. The performance of the model is found to be comparable with that of Antarctic Meso-scale Prediction System (AMPS) products.