A M Gabruekiv
Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science
Volume 101 Issue 3 September 1992 pp 227-238
The earthquake catalogue from 1964 to August 1991 is used to identify the times of increased probabilities (TIPs) of the earthquake mainshocks of magnitudes greater than or equal to 6·4 and are associated with the Indian convergent plate margins, in retrospect. In Pakistan and Indo-Burma regions, the analysis was repeated for magnitude threshold 6·2 and 7·0 respectively. All the earthquakes (except one in the Hindukush region and one in Indo-Burmese region) in Pakistan, Hindukush-Pamir, Himalaya and Indo-Burmese regions were preceded by the special activation and hence were predicted.
Approximately 23 ± 10% of the total time (1970 to August 1991) is occupied by the TIPs in all the regions. The reasons for failure to predict the two earthquakes in these regions are discussed.
Our analysis gives a better picture of the regionalization and the size of the space-time volume for the preparation of an earthquake. The high success ratio of the algorithm proves that it can be applied in this territory for further prediction in the real time, without any significant changes in its parameters.
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