• A I Gorshkov

      Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science

    • Identification of potential areas for the occurrence of strong earthquakes in Himalayan arc region

      S C Bhatia T R K Chetty M B Filimonov A I Gorshkov E Ya Rantsman M N Rao

      More Details Abstract Fulltext PDF

      Morphostructural zoning (MSZ) scheme of the Himalayan arc region as obtained from a joint study of topographic, geological and tectonic maps as well as satellite imagery is analysed. Three types of morphostructures have been determined: territorial units (blocks of different ranks), linear zones limiting these blocks (lineaments) and intersections of the lineaments (knots). Comparison of MSZ scheme with the know seismicity indicates epicenters of strong earthquakes (M≥6·5) clustered around some of these knots. Pattern recognition method is used to determine seismically potential areas for the occurrence of recognition method is used to determine seismically potential, for the occurrence of strong earthquakes of magnitude ≥M0. We have carried out two such studies for the Himalayan arc region, one forM0=6·5 and the other forM0=7·0. Out of a total number of 97 knots, 48 knots are found to be seismically potential for the occurrence of earthquake ofM≥6·5. The results of the study forM0=6·5 were presented in the symposium on “Earthquake Prediction” held in Strasbourg, France, March 1991 (Gorshkovet al 1991). The epicenter of Uttarkashi earthquake of magnitude,Mb=6·6 that occurred in the late hours of 19th October 1991 (UTC) lies in the vicinity of one such knot. The second study carried out subsequently shows that only 36, knots are potential for the occurrence of earthquakes ofM≥7·0, which include the knot, associated with theUttarkashi earthquake.

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