Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science
Volume 116 Issue 5 October 2007 pp 369-384
In the last thirty years great strides have been made by large-scale operational numerical weather prediction models towards improving skills for the medium range time-scale of 7 days.This paper illustrates the use of these current forecasts towards the construction of a consensus multimodel forecast product called the superensemble.This procedure utilizes 120 of the recent-past forecasts from these models to arrive at the training phase statistics. These statistics are described by roughly 107 weights.Use of these weights provides the possibility for real-time medium range forecasts with the superensemble.We show the recent status of this procedure towards real-time forecasts for the Asian summer monsoon.The member models of our suite include ECMWF,NCEP/EMC, JMA,NOGAPS (US Navy),BMRC,RPN (Canada)and an FSU global spectral forecast model. We show in this paper the skill scores for day 1 through day 6 of forecasts from standard variables such as winds,temperature,500 hPa geopotential height,sea level pressure and precipitation.In all cases we noted that the superensemble carries a higher skill compared to each of the member models and their ensemble mean.The skill matrices we use include the RMS errors,the anomaly correlations and equitable threat scores.For many of these forecasts the improvements of skill for the superensemble over the best model was found to be quite substantial.This real-time product is being provided to many interested research groups.The FSU multimodel superensemble,in real- time,stands out for providing the least errors among all of the operational large scale models.
Volume 129 All articles Published: 15 June 2020 Article ID 0135 Research Article
Landslide is the most frequent geo-environmental natural hazard which significantly affect human life and environment. It is the natural hazard when occurs especially in hilly regions mainly along highway corridor, results in obstruction to traffic flow. The road network of a developing country plays a vital role in its overall development. Therefore, it is important to ascertain landslide hazard assessment along roads. In this regard, the study was carried out in middle Himalayan region of Himachal Pradesh, India. The paper describes the investigations carried out on two major landslides, namely Panjpiri and Nalayan occurred at Kiratpur Sahib to Nauni road stretch along NH-205 in Himachal Pradesh, India. The slope failure occurred at Panjpiri was identified as plane failure, whereas at Nalayan it was circular failure. The factor of safety was determined by using Bishop’s method of slices and circular failure charts. For factor of safety calculation of Panjpiri plane failure, six conditions were considered based on physical attributes. Subsequently, the evaluation of slope was designed by reinforcement with rock bolts. While for Nalayan circular failure, soil anchors were designed. Thus, evaluation of slope stability of these two failed slopes were carried out for suggesting appropriate mitigation measures. The results of the study conclude that, with an accurate and well-planned mitigation measures, the severe landslide susceptible sites can be stabilized. Adopting effective engineering mitigation strategies may help the decision makers to choose the appropriate strategies to minimize the landslide hazard.
Volume 129, 2020
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