Volume 124, Issue 4
June 2015, pages 681-908
pp 681-681 June 2015 Editorial
pp 683-695 June 2015
Solidification mechanism at the Lehmann (inner core) boundary are postulated on the basis of Ramachandran interaction by taking the fluctuating inner core super-rotation into account. The postulates are found to be consistent with compressional or P-wave velocity obtained from seismic data analysis. We justify these postulates to be physically sound and precise, and show that the fluctuating inner core super-rotation causes significant changes to the strength of Fe–Fe Ramachandran interaction, which then leads to the observed asymmetric and anisotropic inner core. Our postulates also reliably explain that the depth-dependent anisotropic P-wave attenuation close to inner core surface (to about 100 km deep) is due to phonon excitation probability and different atomic orientation. We also discuss the consistency of our postulates with respect to asymmetric inner core anisotropy (between western and eastern inner core hemispheres).
pp 697-705 June 2015
Seismic triggering at plate boundaries has a very complex nature that includes seismic events at varying distances. The spatial orientation of triggering cannot be reduced to sequences from the main shocks. Seismic waves propagate at all times in all directions, particularly in highly active zones. No direct evidence can be obtained regarding which earthquakes trigger the shocks. The first approach is to determine the potential linked zones where triggering may occur. The second step is to determine the causality between the events and their triggered shocks. The spatial orientation of the links between events is established from pre-ordered networks and the adapted dependence of the spatio-temporal occurrence of earthquakes. Based on a coefficient of synchronous seismic activity to grid couples, we derive a network link by each threshold. The links of high thresholds are tested using the coherence of time series to determine the causality and related orientation. The resulting link orientations at the plate boundary conditions indicate that causal triggering seems to be localized along a major fault, as a stress transfer between two major faults, and parallel to the geothermal area extension.
pp 707-727 June 2015
Megacrystic granitoids associated with migmatitic and metasedimentary gneisses occurring around Nagavalli Shear Zone (NSZ) preserve complex metamorphic and deformation history. Thinly laminated discontinuous banding of quartzofeldspathic layer (S1) in the migmatites is the product of first incipient melting during prograde M1–D1 tectonothermal event. Peak M2–D2 event is manifested by the development of S2 gneissic foliation in all rocks, which is axial planar to rootless folds on S1.Porphyroblastic garnet mantled by leucosomal melt fraction in granitoids, suggest that the rock suffered peak granulite facies metamorphism along with host migmatitic gneisses. The subsequent D3 event deforms differently the massive granitoids and the migmatitic granulite gneisses. The D4 deformation acted as transpression with broad northwest–southeast compression that develops strong discontinuous regional-scale anastomosing shear zones transecting the earlier gneissosity (S2) in the granitoids with prominent sinistral shear sense. It deforms the axial plane of regional folds in migmatites and develops superposed non-plane non-cylindrical folds in outcrop to regional scale. Thus we infer megacrystic granitoids were possibly emplaced in pre- to syn-peak metamorphic event within the host granulites. Granitoids and associated migmatitic gneisses of Late Meso- to Neoproterozoic age suffered subsequent petrotectonic events followed by a sinistral transpression acted along NSZ.
pp 729-746 June 2015
The Ören and Yatağan Basins in SW Turkey host several Miocene coal deposits currently under exploitation for power generation. The present study aims to provide insight into the palaeoenvironmental conditions, which controlled the formation of the Hüsamlar coal seam located in Ören Basin. The coal seam displays many sharp alternations of matrix lignite beds and inorganic, lacustrine sediment layers. The coal is a medium-to-high ash lignite (10.47–31.16 wt%, on dry basis) with high total sulphur content (up to 10 wt%, on dry, ash-free basis), which makes it prone to self-combustion. The maceral composition indicates that the peat-forming vegetation consisted of both arboreal and herbaceous plants, with the latter being predominant in the upper part of the seam. Mica and feldspars contribute to the low part of the seam; carbonates are dominant in the upper part, whereas quartz and pyrite are present along the entire coal profile. The sudden transitions of the telmatic to the lacustrine regime and reverse is attributed to tectonic movements that controlled water table levels in the palaeomire, which affected surface runoff and hence, clastic deposition.
pp 747-766 June 2015
The Lower Jurassic Datta Formation, western Salt Range, Pakistan, comprises three facies associations:
channel belt facies association (CBFA),
channel margin, and overbank facies association (CMOFA), and
lagoonal facies association (LFA).
A cyclic fining-upward trend in the succession is represented by basal quartzose conglomerate/pebbly sandstone, through coarse to fine quartzose sandstone to silt-stone and shales/claystone, which contains some carbonate accumulation. Two prominent depositional sequences are recognized in the Datta Formation with the lower high and upper low magnitude cycles. The Datta Formation thus represents a thick sedimentary succession and in the study area, i.e., western Salt Range, mainly channel belt, flood plain and/or delta top facies are exposed. The palaeocurrent analysis shows that the source area with acidic plutonic rocks laid to S–SE in the Indian shield, aravalies or older sedimentary rocks of the Indus Basin (i.e., Khewra, Tobra and Warchha formations). A tentative stratigraphic correlation of the Datta Formation with the lower Jurassic Lathi Formation, India invites further work in parts of India, which will elaborate the extent of the Datta Formation in the Greater Indian peninsula and develop palaeogeographic setting for this Lower Jurassic deltaic rock unit.
pp 767-781 June 2015
This paper looks at the crucial issue of dry-season groundwater-availability in the state of Maharashtra, India. We look at the two key hydro-climatological measurements which are used to implement ground-water policy in the state, viz., water levels in 5000+ observation wells across the state and aggregate rainfall data. We see that there is substantial variation in groundwater levels within and across the years in most wells. We argue that for a large number of these observation well locations, aggregate rainfall data is inadequate to model or to predict groundwater levels. For this, we use a novel random rainfall coefficient model for the purpose of modelling the effect of rainfall in a composite setting where extraction and changing land-use data is unknown. The observed high variance of this coefficient points to significant variations in groundwater levels, which may only be explained by unmeasured anthropogenic factors. Next, we see that the uncertainty in actual groundwater levels along with scarcity are two distinct features of groundwater availability and will elicit different behaviours from the typical user. Finally, we recommend that quantitative groundwater assessment protocols of the state should move to incorporating data from which extraction and land-use may be modelled. We believe this is one of the first studies where large spatio-temporal scale data gathered by state agencies have been analysed for scientific adequacy.
pp 783-798 June 2015
The Sandıklı (Afyonkarahisar) Basin is located in the southwest of Turkey and is a semi-closed basin. Groundwater is widely used for drinking, domestic and irrigation purposes in the basin. The mismanagement of groundwater resources in the basin causes negative effects including depletion of the aquifer storage and groundwater level decline. To assure sustainability of the basin, determination of groundwater budget is necessary. In this study, the water-table fluctuation (WTF) and the meteorological water budget (MWB) methods were used to estimate groundwater budget in the Sandıklı basin (Turkey). Conceptual hydrogeological model of the basin was used for understanding the relation between budget parameters. The groundwater potential of the basin calculated with MWB method as 42.10 × 106 m3/year. In addition, it is also calculated with simplified WTF method as 38.48 × 106 m3/year.
pp 799-806 June 2015
Eight groundwater observation wells were installed along the river plain, where the landscapes varied from floodplain, to oasis farmland, to desert-oasis ecotone to desert, in a typical desert-oasis ecotone in northwestern China. Ten years of data were used to analyze temporal and spatial changes in the ground-water depth. The results indicated that in the last decade:
the groundwater depths in the floodplain (GW1) and the desert (GW8) were basically stable;
the groundwater depths in the oasis farmland (GW2, GW3, GW4) increased dramatically: the annual fluctuations were 1.43, 1.01 and 0.79 m respectively, with the groundwater depths increasing by 0.13–0.18 m every year;
the groundwater depths in the desert-oasis ecotone (GW5, GW6, GW7) also increased dramatically: the annual fluctuations were 1.10, 1.06 and 1.05 m respectively, and the depths increased by 0.10–0.15 m every year;
the influence distance between the river and both the farmland and the desert-oasis ecotone was about 1000–2000 m in the study area.
These results show that the natural seasonal fluctuation influence on groundwater depths was not significant, but the human-induced fluctuations such as intensive irrigation caused a significant increase in groundwater depth in both the farmland and the desert-oasis ecotone, seriously affecting sustainable agriculture development and the environment, in the oasis.
pp 819-828 June 2015
Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) represents the evaporative demand of the atmosphere and depends on climatic parameters such as radiation, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed. Relative role of climatic parameter of ET0 varies from one climate to another and within the climate, and depends on the location and time. Sensitivity analysis was conducted and sensitivity coefficients were determined to evaluate the impact of principal climatic parameters on ET0 in Karnal district of India. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1981 to 2011 were estimated from FAO-56 Penman–Monteith equation using the daily climate data collected from Central Soil Salinity Research Institute, Karnal. Results showed that seasonal and annual ET0 were most sensitive to maximum temperature followed by sunshine hours. However, wind speed, relative humidity, and minimum temperature had varying effect on mean ET0. After maximum temperature and sunshine hours, ET0 was more sensitive to wind speed followed by relative humidity and minimum temperature in summer. In monsoon, after maximum temperature and sunshine hours, ET0 was more sensitive to minimum temperature followed by relative humidity and wind speed. However, in winter, after maximum temperature and sunshine hours, ET0 was more sensitive to relative humidity followed by wind speed and minimum temperature. The study suggests that the climate variability would affect reference ET0; however, its impact on ET0 would be different for different parameters.
pp 829-841 June 2015
Estimation of extremely high rainfall (point or areal) is one of the major components of design storm derivation. The estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) involves selection of heavy rain-storms and its maximization for the moisture content during the rainstorm period. These heavy rain-storms are nothing but the widespread heavy rainfall exceeding a certain threshold value. The present study examines the characteristics of heavy rainstorms in the Indus basin selected from present climate and future scenarios simulated by the regional climate model. Such information on heavy rainfall forms the basis for the hydrologic design projects and also for the water management of a river basin. Emphasis is given to severe rainstorms of 1-day duration covering an area of at least 40,000 km2 with spatial average rainfall of at least 5cm. This analysis also provides the information on the temporal changes in the storm factors such as shape, orientation, and movement, and shows that the model can well simulate the rainstorm pattern in terms of its intensity, orientation, and shape of the rainstorm, but overestimates the frequency of such heavy rainstorms. The future scenario indicates increase in rainfall intensity at the center of the rainstorm with decreasing areal spread. Decrease in the frequency of rainstorms is projected under the global warming conditions.
pp 843-860 June 2015
Ensembles of two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CGCM3 and HadCM3, are used to project future maximum temperature ($T$Max), minimum temperature ($T$Min) and precipitation in a part of Sutlej River Basin, northwestern Himalayan region, India. Large scale atmospheric variables of CGCM3 and HadCM3 under different emission scenarios and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis datasets are downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). Variability and changes in $T$Max, $T$Min and precipitation under scenarios A1B and A2 of CGCM3 model and A2 and B2 of HadCM3 model are presented for future periods: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The study reveals rise in annual average $T$Max, $T$Min and precipitation under scenarios A1B and A2 for CGCM3 model as well as under A2 and B2 scenarios for HadCM3 model in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Increase in mean monthly $T$Min is also observed for all months of the year under all scenarios of both the models. This is followed by decrease in $T$Max during June, July August and September. However, the model projects rise in precipitation in months of July, August and September under A1B and A2 scenarios of CGCM3 model and A2 and B2 of HadCM3 model for future periods.
pp 861-874 June 2015
India Meteorological Department (IMD) introduced the objective tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast valid for next 24 hrs over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) in 2003. It further extended the validity period up to 72 hrs in 2009. Here an attempt is made to evaluate the TC landfall forecast issued by IMD during 2003–2013 (11 years) by calculating the landfall point forecast error (LPE) and landfall time forecast error (LTE).
The average LPE is about 67, 95, and 124 km and LTE is about 4, 7, and 2 hrs, respectively for 24, 48, and 72-hr forecasts over the NIO as a whole during 2009–2013. The accuracy of TC landfall forecast has been analysed with respect to basin of formation (Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, and NIO as a whole), specific regions of landfall, season of formation (pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons), intensity of TCs (cyclonic storm (CS), and severe cyclonic storm (SCS) or higher intensities) at the time of initiation of forecast and type of track of TCs (climatological/straight moving and recurving/looping type). The LPE is less over the BOB than over the AS for all forecast lengths up to 72 hrs. Similarly, the LPE is less during the post-monsoon season than during pre-monsoon season. The LPEs are less for climatologically moving/straight moving TCs than for the recurving/looping TCs.
The LPE over the NIO has decreased at the rate of about 14.5 km/year during 2003–2013 for 24-hr forecasts. The LTE does not show any significant improvement for 24-hr forecast during the same period. There is significant decrease in LPE and LTE during 2009–2013 compared to 2003–2008 due to the modernisation programme of IMD. The 24-hr LPE and LTE have decreased from 157.5 to 66.5 km and 7.8 to 4.1 hrs, respectively. However, there is still scope for further reduction in 48 and 72-hr forecast errors over the NIO to about 50 and 100 km respectively based on the latest technology including aircraft reconnaissance, deployment of buoys, and assimilation of more observational data from satellite and Doppler weather radars, etc., in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models during the next five years.
pp 875-896 June 2015
The aerosol mass concentrations over several Indian regions have been simulated using the online chemistry transport model, WRF-Chem, for two distinct seasons of 2011, representing the pre-monsoon (May) and post-monsoon (October) periods during the Indo–US joint experiment ‘Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX)’. The simulated values were compared with concurrent measurements. It is found that the model systematically underestimates near-surface BC mass concentrations as well as columnar Aerosol Optical Depths (AODs) from the measurements. Examining this in the light of the model-simulated meteorological parameters, we notice the model overestimates both planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and surface wind speeds, leading to deeper mixing and dispersion and hence lower surface concentrations of aerosols. Shortcoming in simulating rainfall pattern also has an impact through the scavenging effect. It also appears that the columnar AODs are influenced by the unrealistic emission scenarios in the model. Comparison with vertical profiles of BC obtained from aircraft-based measurements also shows a systematic underestimation by the model at all levels. It is seen that concentration of other aerosols, viz., dust and sea-salt are closely linked with meteorological conditions prevailing over the region. Dust is higher during pre-monsoon periods due to the prevalence of north-westerly winds that advect dust from deserts of west Asia into the Indo-Gangetic plain. Winds and rainfall influence sea-salt concentrations. Thus, the unrealistic simulation of wind and rainfall leads to model simulated dust and sea-salt also to deviate from the real values; which together with BC also causes underperformance of the model with regard to columnar AOD. It appears that for better simulations of aerosols over Indian region, the model needs an improvement in the simulation of the meteorology.
pp 897-908 June 2015
ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-interim) data of winds for the year 2007 between the pressure levels 1 and 1000 hPa (0–49 km) have been analyzed for equatorial wave activity over a tropical station Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E). Available wind observations made by MST radar located at the same site have also been used to investigate the wave activity in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Waves in the period bands 7–10, 12–15 and 20–30 d are observed. Temporal variability of the wave activity has been investigated by constructing wavelet spectra. The longer period waves show strong seasonal variability with maximum and minimum activities during winter and summer months respectively. Short period activity is more prominent during June–July–August in the tropospheric region. The waves are found to be generated in the troposphere by wind shear and convection. Propagation of the waves to higher altitudes is found to depend strongly on background zonal wind and phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The waves are inhibited to propagate through the negative wind shear zone. Meridional waves might be generated by non-linear wave CISK.