• Volume 117, Issue S2

November 2008,   pages  647-895

• Preface

• Seismic hazard scenario and attenuation model of the Garhwal Himalaya using near-field synthesis from weak motion seismometry

In this paper, we present a seismic hazard scenario for the Garhwal region of the north-western Himalayan range, in terms of the horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration. The scenario earthquake of moment magnitude $M_w$ 8.5 has a 10% exceedance probability over the next 50 years. These estimates, the first for the region, were calculated through a stepwise process based on:

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• Uncertainties in the estimation of $M_{\max}$

In the present paper, the parameters affecting the uncertainties on the estimation of $M_{\max}$ have been investigated by exploring different methodologies being used in the analysis of seismicity catalogue and estimation of seismicity parameters. A critical issue to be addressed before any scientific analysis is to assess the quality, consistency, and homogeneity of the data. The empirical relationships between different magnitude scales have been used for conversions for homogenization of seismicity catalogues to be used for further seismic hazard assessment studies. An endeavour has been made to quantify the uncertainties due to magnitude conversions and the seismic hazard parameters are then estimated using different methods to consider the epistemic uncertainty in the process. The study area chosen is around Delhi. The 𝑏 value and the magnitude of completeness for the four seismogenic sources considered around Delhi varied more than 40% using the three catalogues compiled based on different magnitude conversion relationships. The effect of the uncertainties has been then shown on the estimation of $M_{\max}$ and the probabilities of occurrence of different magnitudes. It has been emphasized to consider the uncertainties and their quantification to carry out seismic hazard assessment and in turn the seismic microzonation.

• Modeling and synthesis of strong ground motion

Success of earthquake resistant design practices critically depends on how accurately the future ground motion can be determined at a desired site. But very limited recorded data are available about ground motion in India for engineers to rely upon. To identify the needs of engineers, under such circumstances, in estimating ground motion time histories, this article presents a detailed review of literature on modeling and synthesis of strong ground motion data. In particular, modeling of seismic sources and earth medium, analytical and empirical Green’s functions approaches for ground motion simulation, stochastic models for strong motion and ground motion relations are covered. These models can be used to generate realistic near-field and far-field ground motion in regions lacking strong motion data. Numerical examples are shown for illustration by taking Kutch earthquake-2001 as a case study.

• Spatial-Temporal variability of seismic hazard in Peninsular India

This paper examines the variability of seismic activity observed in the case of different geological zones of peninsular India (10°N$–$26°N; 68°E$–$90°E) based on earthquake catalog between the period 1842 and 2002 and estimates earthquake hazard for the region. With compilation of earthquake catalog in terms of moment magnitude and establishing broad completeness criteria, we derive the seismicity parameters for each geologic zone of peninsular India using maximum likelihood procedure. The estimated parameters provide the basis for understanding the historical seismicity associated with different geological zones of peninsular India and also provide important inputs for future seismic hazard estimation studies in the region. Based on present investigation, it is clear that earthquake recurrence activity in various geologic zones of peninsular India is distinct and varies considerably between its cratonic and rifting zones. The study identifies the likely hazards due to the possibility of moderate to large earthquakes in peninsular India and also presents the influence of spatial rate variation in the seismic activity of this region. This paper presents the influence of source zone characterization and recurrence rate variation pattern on the maximum earthquake magnitude estimation. The results presented in the paper provide a useful basis for probabilistic seismic hazard studies and microzonation studies in peninsular India.

• Dynamic soil properties for microzonation of Delhi, India

Delhi, the capital of India, has experienced mild seismic shaking during several earthquakes in the past. The large variations of depth to bedrock and ground water table coupled with different soil types at different locations of Delhi necessitate a seismic microzonation study. Dynamic soil properties such as shear wave velocity, modulus reduction and damping characteristics of local soils are the basic and essential input parameters for conducting even a preliminary ground response analysis which is an essential input in microzonation studies. Shear wave velocity is not measured routinely due to its high cost and lack of the required expertise. Several researchers in the past developed correlations between shear wave velocity ($V_s$) and routinely measured 𝑁 values. In the present study, shear wave velocity profiles measured in the field at more than 80 borehole locations to a depth of about 20 to 32m using Spectral Analysis of Surface Waves (SASW) are presented and correlations between shear wave velocity and 𝑁 values are also presented for use by engineers and designers. Results of strain and stress controlled cyclic triaxial tests on remoulded samples of sandsilt mixtures in the high strain range are used for generating the modulus reduction and damping curves and are compared with the well-known curves in the literature. The results presented in this article can be used for microzonation studies as well as site specific ground response analyses at Delhi.

• Importance of quantification of local site effects based on wave propagation in seismic microzonation

This paper presents the three most important aspects of seismic microzonation namely prediction of fundamental frequency (F0) of soil deposit, aggravation factor (aggravation factor is simply the extra spectral amplification due to complex 2D site effects over the 1D response of the soil column) and the spatial variability of the ground motion caused by the basin-edge induced Love waves. The predicted F0 of single, double and three-soil-layered models revealed that the available empirical relations to predict the F0 of layered soil deposits are inadequate. We recommend the use of analytical or numerical methods to predict such an important parameter based on wave propagation effects. An increase of amplitude of Love wave, strain level and average aggravation factor (AAF) with increase of impedance contrast was obtained. Based on the trend of rate of decrease of AAF and maximum strain with offset from the basin-edge, we can qualitatively infer that the effects of induced Love wave may reduce to a negligible value after a traveled distance of 6.5–10.0 𝜆𝐹 (where 𝜆𝐹 is the wavelength corresponding to the $F_o$ of soil layer). The obtained increase of strain level with the decrease of distance between two receiver points used for the computation of strain reflects that structures having spatial extent smaller than the 𝜆F may suffer damage due to the basin-edge induced surface waves. The fast rate of decrease of strain with the offset from the strong lateral discontinuity (SLD)/basin-edge may be attributed to the dispersive nature of Love wave. We can incorporate the increased spectral amplification due to the induced surface waves in the form of aggravation factor but till date we have no effective way to incorporate the effects of developed strain by induced surface waves in seismic microzonation or in building codes.

• A technical note on seismic microzonation in the central United States

Microzonation is an effort to evaluate and map potential hazards found in an area, urban area in particular, that could be induced by strong ground shaking during an earthquake. These hazards include: ground motion amplification, liquefaction, and slope failure. The microzonation maps, depicting ground-motion amplification, liquefaction, and landslide potentials, can be produced if the ground motion on bedrock (input) and the site conditions are known. These maps, in combination with ground-motion hazard maps (on bedrock), can be used to develop a variety of hazard mitigation strategies such as seismic risk assessment, emergency response and preparedness, and land-use planning. However, these maps have certain limitations that result from the nature of regional mapping, data limitations, generalization, and computer modeling. These microzonations show that when strong ground shaking occurs, damage is more likely to occur, or be more severe, in the higher hazard areas. The zones shown on the hazard maps should not serve as a substitute for site-specific evaluations.

• Site response zones and short-period earthquake ground motion projections for the Las Vegas Basin

A deterministic seismic hazard analysis was conducted to address the effect of local soil conditions on earthquake-induced strong ground motion in the Las Vegas Basin, Nevada (US). Using a large geological and geotechnical database, two response units were defined: a fine-grained unit, predominantly clay; and a coarse-grained unit, predominantly gravel. A moderate number of high-quality shallow shear wave velocity measurements were collected from which characteristic shear wave velocity profiles were developed for each response unit. An equivalent-linear one-dimensional site response model was used. The model was calibrated using a basin-wide, small-strain ground motion database. Calibration tests showed that ground motion projections become increasingly conservative with increasing ground-motion amplitude. Projections were overconservative for the coarsegrained response unit, likely due to the sparseness of the velocity database. For the earthquake response analyses, historical ground motions were used to model characteristic ‘bedrock’ motion for earthquakes on 10 faults judged to be critical. Response spectral envelopes were generated for each unit through Monte-Carlo simulations. For the fine-grained response unit, 95th percentile peak ground acceleration, peak spectral acceleration and predominant period were 310 cm/s2, 1100cm/s2, and 0.29 s, respectively. With respect to codified design spectra, projections are lower at short periods and higher at long periods. Projections of peak spectral accelerations for the coarsegrained response unit, were more than double that of codified spectra; however, they are believed to be overconservative. Near-fault effects and basin-edge effects, though potentially important, were not considered in these analyses.

• Site response of the Ganges Basin inferred from re-evaluated macroseismic observations from the 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra and 1934 Nepal earthquakes

We analyze previously published geodetic data and intensity values for the $M_s = 8.1$ Shillong (1897), $M_s = 7.8$ Kangra (1905), and $M_s = 8.2$ Nepal/Bihar (1934) earthquakes to investigate the rupture zones of these earthquakes as well as the amplification of ground motions throughout the Punjab, Ganges and Brahmaputra valleys. For each earthquake we subtract the observed MSK intensities from a synthetic intensity derived from an inferred planar rupture model of the earthquake, combined with an attenuation function derived from instrumentally recorded earthquakes. The resulting residuals are contoured to identify regions of anomalous intensity caused primarily by local site effects. Observations indicative of liquefaction are treated separately from other indications of shaking severity lest they inflate inferred residual shaking estimates. Despite this precaution we find that intensites are 1–3 units higher near the major rivers, as well as at the edges of the Ganges basin. We find evidence for a post-critical Moho reflection from the 1897 and 1905 earthquakes that raises intensities 1–2 units at distances of the order of 150 km from the rupture zone, and we find that the 1905 earthquake triggered a substantial subsequent earthquake at Dehra Dun, at a distance of approximately 150 km. Four or more 𝑀 = 8 earthquakes are apparently overdue in the region based on seismic moment summation in the past 500 years. Results from the current study permit anticipated intensities in these future earthquakes to be refined to incorporate site effects derived from dense macroseismic data.

• Considerations on seismic microzonation in areas with two-dimensional hills

This paper presents the results of an extensive numerical parametric study on seismic behavior of 2D homogenous hills subjected to vertically propagating incident SV waves. It is shown that the amplification potential of these hills is strongly influenced by the wavelength, by the shape ratio, by the shape of the hill and in a less order of importance, by the Poisson ratio of the media. The 2D topography effect could be ignored, only if the hill has a shape ratio of less than 0.1 or if it is subjected to incident waves with predominant dimensionless periods of greater than 13 times the shape ratio. In incidence of waves with wavelengths longer than the width of the hill, the amplification curve usually finds its maximum at the crest and decreases towards the base of the hill. Else, some de-amplification zones would occur along the hill. Among hills with similar shape ratios, those with intermediate cross section areas show intermediate seismic behavior, too. Estimated seismic site coefficients for the crest of a 2D rocky hill depend on its shape ratio and could reach even 1.7, which encourages one to classify it according to standard site categorization procedures as soil profile types SC or SD instead of the conventional SB type.

• Preliminary results for a semi-automated quantification of site effects using geomorphometry and ASTER satellite data for Mozambique, Pakistan and Turkey

Estimation of the degree of local seismic wave amplification (site effects) requires precise information about the local site conditions. In many regions of the world, local geologic information is either sparse or is not readily available. Because of this, seismic hazard maps for countries such as Mozambique, Pakistan and Turkey are developed without consideration of site factors and, therefore, do not provide a complete assessment of future hazards. Where local geologic information is available, details on the traditional maps often lack the precision (better than 1:10,000 scale) or the level of information required for modern seismic microzonation requirements. We use high-resolution (1:50,000) satellite imagery and newly developed image analysis methods to begin addressing this problem. Our imagery, consisting of optical data and digital elevation models (DEMs), is recorded from the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) sensor system. We apply a semi-automated, object-oriented, multi-resolution feature segmentation method to identify and extract local terrain features. Then we classify the terrain types into mountain, piedmont and basin units using geomorphometry (topographic slope) as our parameter. Next, on the basis of the site classification schemes from the Wills and Silva (1998) study and the Wills et al (2000) and Wills and Clahan (2006) maps of California, we assign the local terrain units with $V_s$ 30 (the average seismic shear-wave velocity through the upper 30m of the subsurface) ranges for selected regions in Mozambique, Pakistan and Turkey. We find that the applicability of our site class assignments in each region is a good first-approximation for quantifying local site conditions and that additional work, such as the verification of the terrain’s compositional rigidity, is needed.

• Earthquake hazard in northeast India – A seismic microzonation approach with typical case studies from Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city

A comprehensive analytical as well as numerical treatment of seismological, geological, geomorphological and geotechnical concepts has been implemented through microzonation projects in the northeast Indian provinces of Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city, representing cases of contrasting geological backgrounds – a hilly terrain and a predominantly alluvial basin respectively. The estimated maximum earthquakes in the underlying seismic source zones, demarcated in the broad northeast Indian region, implicates scenario earthquakes of $M_W$ 8.3 and 8.7 to the respective study regions for deterministic seismic hazard assessments. The microzonation approach as undertaken in the present analyses involves multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation through thematic integration of contributing factors. The geomorphological themes for Sikkim Himalaya include surface geology, soil cover, slope, rock outcrop and landslide integrated to achieve geological hazard distribution. Seismological themes, namely surface consistent peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency were, thereafter, overlaid on and added with the geological hazard distribution to obtain the seismic hazard microzonation map of the Sikkim Himalaya. On the other hand, the microzonation study of Guwahati city accounts for eight themes – geological and geomorphological, basement or bedrock, landuse, landslide, factor of safety for soil stability, shear wave velocity, predominant frequency, and surface consistent peak ground acceleration. The five broad qualitative hazard classifications – ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘high’, ‘moderate high’ and ‘very high’ could be applied in both the cases, albeit with different implications to peak ground acceleration variations. These developed hazard maps offer better representation of the local specific seismic hazard variation in the terrain.

• Seismic microzonation of Bangalore, India

In the present study, an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard considering local site effects by carrying out detailed geotechnical and geophysical site characterization in Bangalore, India to develop microzonation maps. An area of 220 km2, encompassing Bangalore Mahanagara Palike (BMP) has been chosen as the study area. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of Bangalore are addressed in three parts: in the first part, estimation of seismic hazard is done using seismotectonic and geological information. Second part deals with site characterization using geotechnical and shallow geophysical techniques. In the last part, local site effects are assessed by carrying out one-dimensional (1-D) ground response analysis (using the program SHAKE 2000) using both standard penetration test (SPT) data and shear wave velocity data from multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) survey. Further, field experiments using microtremor studies have also been carried out for evaluation of predominant frequency of the soil columns. The same has been assessed using 1-D ground response analysis and compared with microtremor results. Further, the Seed and Idriss simplified approach has been adopted to evaluate the soil liquefaction susceptibility and liquefaction resistance assessment. Microzonation maps have been prepared with a scale of 1:20,000. The detailed methodology, along with experimental details, collated data, results and maps are presented in this paper.

• Seismic hazard assessment of Chennai city considering local site effects

Chennai city suffered moderate tremors during the 2001 Bhuj and Pondicherry earthquakes and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. After the Bhuj earthquake, Indian Standard IS: 1893 was revised and Chennai city was upgraded from zone II to zone III which leads to a substantial increase of the design ground motion parameters. Therefore, a comprehensive study is carried out to assess the seismic hazard of Chennai city based on a deterministic approach. The seismicity and seismotectonic details within a 100 km radius of the study area have been considered. The one-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out for 38 representative sites by the equivalent linear method using the SHAKE91 program to estimate the ground motion parameters considering the local site effects. The shear wave velocity profile was inferred from the corrected blow counts and it was verified with the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) test performed for a representative site. The seismic hazard is represented in terms of characteristic site period and Spectral Acceleration Ratio (SAR) contours for the entire city. It is found that structures with low natural period undergo significant amplification mostly in the central and southern parts of Chennai city due to the presence of deep soil sites with clayey or sandy deposits and the remaining parts undergo marginal amplification.

• Proposed seismic hazard maps of Sumatra and Java Islands and microzonation study of Jakarta City, Indonesia

This paper presents the development of spectral hazard maps for Sumatra and Java islands, Indonesia and microzonation study for Jakarta city. The purpose of this study is to propose a revision of the seismic hazard map in Indonesian Seismic Code SNI 03-1726-2002. Some improvements in seismic hazard analysis were implemented in the analysis by considering the recent seismic activities around Java and Sumatra. The seismic hazard analysis was carried out using 3-dimension (3-D) seismic source models (fault source model) using the latest research works regarding the tectonic setting of Sumatra and Java. Two hazard levels were analysed for representing 10% and 2% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years ground motions for Sumatra and Java. Peak ground acceleration contour maps for those two hazard levels and two additional macrozonation maps for 10% PE in 50 years were produced during this research. These two additional maps represent short period (0.2 s) and long-period (1.0 s) spectra values at the bedrock. Microzonation study is performed in order to obtain ground motion parameters such as acceleration, amplification factor and response spectra at the surface of Jakarta. The analyses were carried out using nonlinear approach. The results were used to develop contour of acceleration at the surface of Jakarta. Finally, the design response spectra for structural design purposes are proposed in this study.

• Relative seismic shaking vulnerability microzonation using an adaptation of the Nakamura Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio Method

An alternative seismic shaking vulnerability survey method to computational intensive theoretical modelling of site response to earthquake, and time consuming test versus reference site horizontal ratio methods, is described. The methodology is suitable for small to large scale engineering investigations. Relative seismic shaking vulnerability microzonation using an adaptation of the Nakamura horizontal to vertical spectral ratio method provides many advantages over alternative methods including: low cost; rapid field phase (100 km2 can easily be covered by a single operator in 5 days); low and flexible instrumentation requirements (a single seismometer and data logger of almost any type is required); field data can be collected at any time during the day or night (the results are insensitive to ambient social noise); no basement rock reference site is required (thus eliminating trigger synchronisation between reference and multiple test site seismographs); rapid software aided analysis; insensitivity to ground-shaking resonance peaks; ability to compare results obtained from non-contiguous survey fields. The methodology is described in detail, and a practical case study is provided, including mapped results. The resulting microzonation maps indicate the relative seismic shaking vulnerability for built structures of different height categories within adjacent zones, with a resolution of approximately 1 km.

• # Journal of Earth System Science

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December 2019

• # Editorial Note on Continuous Article Publication

Posted on July 25, 2019