Volume 107, Issue 3
September 1998, pages 1-224
pp 1- September 1998 Rapid Communication
pp 175-186 September 1998
The stability analyses of the stream function at the upper atmosphere have been conducted using a global barotropic spectral model with a view to examine the seasonal characteristics. The growing eigen modes are classified into three groups with periods in the range of 3–8, 11–18 and 20–50 days. This study indicates that the growth and movement of all the three types of modes are adequately sustained by the asymmetric basic flow. All the modes grow faster in summer than in winter. The meridional shear of the basic flow is the most important source of growth of the perturbations. In the absence of the meridional wind shear, the eigen modes grow slowly, in which case, the quasi-nonlinear triad interaction between the waves is identified to contribute significantly to the growth of the modes. The robustness of the eigen modes is also examined in this study using the barotropic model at different horizontal resolutions in the triangular truncation scheme.
pp 187-201 September 1998
A number of physical factors have been introduced to improve limited area model forecasts. The factors include land surface fluxes, shallow convection and radiation. The model including these additional physical factors (modified physics) is run for five cases of monsoon depression which made landfall over the Indian coast, and the results are compared with those of the control run. The forecasts are verified by computing the root mean square and mean errors. The differences in these skill scores between the two model runs are tested for their statistical significance. It is found that the modified physics has a statistically significant effect on the model skill with the maximum impact on the mean sea level pressure and the temperature.
Detailed analyses of mean sea level pressure, wind, rainfall and temperature further confirm that the modified physics has maximum impact on mean sea level pressure and temperature and marginal impact on wind and rainfall. Furthermore, analyses of some model parameters related to physics at a grid point for one case of depression were done. The results show that the inclusion of the land surface physics, shallow convection and radiative processes have produced a better precipitation forecast over the grid point.
pp 203-211 September 1998
The first optical signatures of plasmapause associated processes were gleaned from the daytime auroral emissions monitored from Maitri, the Indian station in Antarctica, using the newly built, ground-based, Multiwavelength Daytime Photometer (MWDPM). The plasmapause boundary inferred from these measurements conforms well with the known empirical relationship with the geomagnetic indexKp. The measurements made at 391.4, 486.1, 557.7 and 630.0 nm emissions revealed significant day-to-day variations in their spatial and temporal extents. These preliminary results are presented and discussed.
pp 213-216 September 1998
An analytical form for the source function is formulated by comparing the fetch-limited approximation of the Ocean Wave Transport equation and the empirical equation for the fetch-dependent wave forecast nomograms. The source function thus generated has been utilised in the numerical model based on Toba’s formulation of wave transport equation and tested for the seas around the Indian subcontinent (5°S to 25°N latitude; 45°E to 100°E longitude). The grid averaged hindcast wave heights are found to be moderately matching with the GEOSAT altimeter measured significant wave heights of the 1987–1989 period, particularly for waves higher than 1 meter.
pp 217-224 September 1998
Singular spectrum isolates significant principal components in a time series from the embedded noise. This tool-kit is used to reconstruct trend-free individual time series, formed by restricting the mean monthly hourly values of geomagnetic field to one hour at a time at a low latitude station Alibag (dipole latitude 9.5°N). Each reconstructed component is extrapolated over the next 12 values using an autoregressive model based on Burg’s maximum entropy algorithm. Details of a numerical approach to increase the reliability of extrapolation are highlighted. The extrapolated reconstructed components are then combined to generate predicted monthly values for each hour. The mean diurnal variation for any month obtained from the extrapolated individual hourly time series compares favorably with the observations. This approach to Sq(H) modelling incorporating both long and short term variations will be beneficial in the derivation of Dst index.