• Volume 107, Issue 2

      June 1998,   pages  107-173

    • Probabilities of excess and deficient southwest monsoon rainfall over different meteorological sub-divisions of India

      D R Kothawale A A Munot

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      Temporal distribution of southwest monsoon (June –September) rainfall is very useful for the country’s agriculture and food grain production. It contributes more than 75% of India’s annual rainfall. In view of this, an attempt has been made here to understand the performance of the monthly rainfall for June, July, August and September when the seasonal rainfall is reported as excess, deficient or normal. To know the dependence of seasonal rainfall on monthly rainfall, the probabilities of occurrence of excess, deficient and normal monsoon when June, July, August and also June + July and August + September rainfall is reported to be excess or deficient, are worked out using the long homogenous series of 124 years (1871-–1994) data of monthly and seasonal rainfall of 29 meteorological sub-divisions of the plain regions of India.

      In excess monsoon years, the average percentage contribution of each monsoon month to the long term mean (1871–1994) seasonal rainfall (June –September) is more than that of the normal while in the deficient years it is less than normal. This is noticed in all 29 meteorological sub-divisions. From the probability analysis, it is seen that there is a rare possibility of occurrence of seasonal rainfall to be excess/deficient when the monthly rainfall of any month is deficient/excess.

    • Intra-seasonal variations of kinetic energy of lower tropospheric zonal waves during northern summer monsoon

      S M Bawiskar M D Chipade S S Singh

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      Space spectral analysis of zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind and time spectral analysis of kinetic energy of zonal waves at 850 hPa during monsoon 1991 (1st June 1991 to 31st August 1991) for the global belt between equator and 40°N are investigated. Space spectral analysis shows that long waves (wavenumbers 1 and 2) dominate the energetics of Region 1 (equator to 20°N) while over Region 2 (20°N to 40°N) the kinetic energy of short waves (wavenumbers 3 to 10) is more than kinetic energy of long waves. It has been found that kinetic energy of long waves is dominated by zonal component while both (zonal and meridional) the components of wind have almost equal contribution in the kinetic energy of short waves.

      Temporal variations of kinetic energy of wavenumber 2 over Region 1 and Region 2 are almost identical. The correlation matrix of different time series shows that (i) wavenumber 2 over Regions 1 and 2 might have the same energy source and (ii) there is a possibility of an exchange of kinetic energy between wavenumber 1 over Region 1 and short waves over Region 2. Wave to wave interactions indicate that short waves over Region 2 are the common source of kinetic energy to wavenumber 2 over Regions 1 and 2 and wavenumber 1 over Region 1. Time spectral analysis of kinetic energy of zonal waves indicates that wavenumber 1 is dominated by 30–45 day and bi-weekly oscillations while short waves are dominated by weekly and bi-weekly oscillations.

      The correlation matrix, wave to wave interaction and time spectral analysis together suggest that short period oscillations of kinetic energy of wavenumber 1 might be one of the factors causing dominant weekly (5–9 day) and bi-weekly (10–18 day) oscillations in the kinetic energy of short waves.

    • Numerical study of the effects of urban heat island on the characteristic features of the sea breeze circulation

      Abhijit Sarkar R S Saraswat A Chandrasekar

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      A two-dimensional numerical model is employed to study the effect of the coastal urban heat island on the sea breeze front and the thermal internal boundary layer height. The temperature at the land surface is determined by solving an energy budget equation. The effect of the urban heat island is studied by varying the width of the region and its intensity. During the early afternoon, the presence of the urban heat island enhances the strength of convergence of the sea breeze front and also reduces its inland penetration. The presence of the urban heat island causes increased thermal internal boundary layer height. Larger urban width causes larger vertical velocity and higher thermal internal boundary layer. Stronger convergence and higher thermal internal boundary layer are also obtained in case of larger heat island intensity.

    • Sixty year10Be record from Greenland and Antarctica

      A Aldahan G Possnert S J Johnsen H B Clausen E Isaksson W Karlen M Hansson

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      We report in this study the distribution of10Be in the top 40 m of the Renland ice core (East Greenland) and in a 30 m long core from DML (Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica) for the period 1931–1988. The two sites show differences in10Be content, the Antarctica site showing smaller variance and a lower average10Be annual flux. Similarly, the average accumulation rate (cm water equivalent year−1) is higher in the Renland relative to DML. The variability in accumulation (precipitation) rates seems to explain part of the difference in10Be flux between the two polar sites. Cyclic fluctuations of10Be flux correlate with the 11-year sunspot number and cosmic ray intensity than with the aa index (perturbation of the geomagnetic activity by the solar wind). Our data corroborate10Be cyclic fluctuation pattern from the Dye 3 ice core and confirm a promising potential for correlation of global and local events.

    • Inversion of GDS data of northwest Himalaya using EM2INV

      Anupma Rastogi P K Gupta Sri Niwas

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      This paper reviews the validity of earlier models obtained after quantitative interpretation of GDS data and presents a fresh model using the inversion scheme EM2INV. The 2-D inversion of data is more objective than the earlier interpretation performed by using trial and error method. The inversion results indicate that the present model differs from the earlier ones. The reason could be that available GDS data are sufficient only for deriving the horizontal variation of subsurface resistivity. In order to study the vertical resistivity variation additional MT sounding data would be required. It would therefore be desirable to carry out MT survey in the specified area. A more comprehensive/appropriate model could be derived from joint inversion of GDS and MT data.

    • A note on the relationship between dip-slip fault parameters and plate parameters in the two-dimensional modelling of preseismic deformation

      Sarva Jit Singh Mahabir Singh

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      Preseismic lithospheric deformation at a subduction zone can be modelled as dip-slip dislocation on an inclined fault or as flexure of a thin plate. Both these models predict a region of positive topography known as forebulge or outer rise. By matching the location and the magnitude of the forebulge, we derive useful relations between the dip-slip fault parameters and the plate parameters. In particular, we determine the width of a long dip-slip fault of given dip corresponding to a semi-infinite plate of given thickness. The displacement profiles of the two models are also compared.

    • Space-time seismicity and earthquake swarms: Certain observations along the slow-spreading mid-Indian Ocean ridges

      M Radha Krishna S K Arora

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      The slow spreading mid-Indian Ocean ridge system containing the Carlsberg, Central and Southwest Indian ridges is seismically very active. In the present study, a detailed analysis has been carried out of the data of earthquake sources along different ridge segments in order to investigate the spatial and temporal clustering patterns and to evaluate crustal processes related to the swarm occurrences along these ridges. The spatial and temporal clustering pattern of the recent earthquakes (1980–1990) pertaining to nine major spreading segments and eight fracture zones suggests that the events cluster in greater proportion along the spreading segments than along the fracture zones.

      We performed a systematic search of earthquake catalogue during the period 1964–1990 by examining the spatio-temporal hypocentral clusters in order to identify the swarm occurrences along these ridges. The search included eighteen prominent sequences, of which, thirteen were earthquake swarms. Except two, all other swarms were found to be occurring mainly on the spreading segments. The maximum magnitude observed in these swarms is mb = 5.4 and have many events predominantly showing normal faulting mechanisms. The spatial disposition and temporal activity of the events in swarms is much similar to the foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences observed along the spreading rift valley zones. These characteristics help us to support that swarms along the slow spreading mid-Indian Ocean ridges are the result of extensional tectonic activity, leading to the development of the median valley topography, a mechanism similar to that proposed by Bergman and Solomon (1990) for the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

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