Volume 104, Issue 1
March 1995, pages 1-146
pp 1- March 1995 Rapid Communication
Evidence for anisotropy in the super-thick sedimentary basin under the northern Bay of Bengal is presented. Surface wave group velocity data given by Brune and Singh (1986) is better fit by an anisotropic model than an isotropic one. This lends support to the hypothesis that the mid-crustal rocks are metasediments and that the section of sediments and metasediments is more than 20 km thick.
pp 1-36 March 1995
Large-scale interannual variability of the northern summer southwest monsoon over India is studied by examining its variation in the dry area during the period 1871–1984. On the mean summer monsoon rainfall (June to September total) chart the 800 mm isohyet divides the country into two nearly equal halves, named as dry area (monsoon rainfall less than 800 mm) and wet area (monsoon rainfall greater than 800 mm). The dry area/wet area shows large variations from one year to another, and is considered as an index for assessing the large-scale performance of the Indian summer monsoon. Statistical and fluctuation characteristics of the summer monsoon dry area (SMDA) are reported.
To identify possible causes of variation in the Indian summer monsoon, the correlation between the summer monsoon dry area and eleven regional/global circulation parameters is examined. The northern hemisphere surface air temperature, zonal/hemispheric/global surface air and upper air temperatures, Southern Oscillation, Quasi-biennial oscillation of the equatorial lower stratosphere, April 500-mb ridge along 75°E over India, the Indian surface air temperature and the Bombay sea level pressure showed significant correlation.
A new predictor parameter that is preceding year mean monsoon rainfall of a few selected stations over India has been suggested in the present study. The stations have been selected by applying the objective technique ‘selecting a subset of few gauges whose mean monsoon rainfall of the preceding year has shown the highest correlation coefficient (CC) with the SMDA’. Bankura (Gangetic West Bengal), Cuddalore (Tamil Nadu) and Anupgarh (West Rajasthan) entered the selection showing a CC of 0.724. Using a dependent sample of 1951–1980 a predictive model (multiple CC = 0.745) has also been developed for the SMDA with preceding year mean monsoon rainfall of the three selected stations and the sea level pressure tendency at Darwin from Jan–Feb to Mar–May as independent parameters.
pp 37-47 March 1995
In this paper neutral point (coalescence) instability (NPI) of plasmoids (PMD) associated with tailward streaming O+, H+ and e− particles and diffusion region (spatial extent and particle life time) are studied. Also, radial and pitch angle diffusion studies have been carried out in the near-earth region (10 and 11 RE during substorm onset. Our study revealed that coalescence instability is favoured by a heavier ion like O+ and the time required for a heavier ion to reach from one X point to an adjacent X point is minimum. Near an X type neutral line (diffusion region) ions spend a fairly long time and gain a significant amount of energy. Radial and pitch angle diffusion studies showed that higher energy particles are largely confined near the reconnection region (near-earth region) and lower energy particles are rapidly depleted from the near-earth region during substorm onset.
pp 49-77 March 1995
The present study describes an analysis of Asian summer monsoon forecasts with an operational general circulation model (GCM) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.K. An attempt is made to examine the influence of improved treatment of physical processes on the reduction of systematic errors. As some of the major changes in the parameterization of physical processes, such as modification to the infrared radiation scheme, deep cumulus convection scheme, introduction of the shallow convection scheme etc., were introduced during 1985–88, a thorough systematic error analysis of the ECMWF monsoon forecasts is carried out for a period prior to the incorporation of such changes i.e. summer monsoon season (June–August) of 1984, and for the corresponding period after relevant changes were implemented (summer monsoon season of 1988).
Monsoon forecasts of the ECMWF demonstrate an increasing trend of forecast skill after the implementation of the major changes in parameterizations of radiation, convection and land-surface processes. Further, the upper level flow is found to be more predictable than that of the lower level and wind forecasts display a better skill than temperature. Apart from this, a notable increase in the magnitudes of persistence error statistics indicates that the monsoon circulation in the analysed fields became more intense with the introduction of changes in the operational forecasting system.
Although, considerable reduction in systematic errors of the Asian summer monsoon forecasts is observed (up to day-5) with the introduction of major changes in the treatment of physical processes, the nature of errors remain unchanged (by day-10). The forecast errors of temperature and moisture in the middle troposphere are also reduced due to the changes in treatment of longwave radiation. Moreover, the introduction of shallow convection helped it further by enhancing the vertical transports of heat and moisture from the lower troposphere. Though, the hydrological cycle in the operational forecasts appears to have enhanced with the major modifications and improvements to the physical parameterization schemes, certain regional peculiarities have developed in the simulated rainfall distribution over the monsoon region. Hence, this study suggests further attempts to improve the formulations of physical processes for further reduction of systematic forecast errors.
pp 79-84 March 1995
A refined mathematical equation is proposed to quantify the ambient activity of water during granulite fades metamorphism. The thermodynamic calculations point to the low activity of water during metamorphism in the area around Anakapalle, Vishakhapatnam district, A.P. Carbonic metamorphism seems to be responsible for the low activity of water during this metamorphism. Calc-silicate rocks in the area, could have been the source of the CO2.
pp 85-114 March 1995
Measurements of shear wave splitting of the waveforms of SKS, SKKS phases recorded at all WWSSN stations (1977–1988) in the Indian shield located on diverse geotectonic units are used to retrieve the anisotropic properties of the sub-Continental lithosphere beneath these regions. The azimuth of fast polarization direction (FPD) ‘α’ and delay time ‘δt’ of the split shear waves with their uncertainties are estimated. Events well distributed in azimuth yield tightly constrained average splitting parameters of α, δt that are roughly:KOD (ENE. 0.50s); HYB (NNE, 145s); POO (N-S, 0.9s); NDI (NE, 0.95s). No consistent anisotropic direction was found at SHL, though the phenomenon of shear wave splitting was clearly observed. In order to test the utility of analog data to document such secondary effects and to authenticate our digitizing procedures, results from GEOSCOPE digital data at HYB were compared with analog data results from the same location. Presence of detectable anisotropy at all the stations is explained either in terms of past and present deformations by tectonic episodes or by plate motion related strain which forms the two end member models in interpreting the observed azimuthal anisotropy. Knowledge of surface geology and maximum horizontal compressive stress (MHS) orientations are invoked to constrain the most plausible hypothesis that explains the observed anisotropic signatures at each of these locations.
pp 115-129 March 1995
We assume that great and moderate Himalayan earthquakes occur through reactivation of subhorizontal thrust faults by frictional failure under the action of stresses induced by Himalayan topography, isostasy related buoyancy forces, crustal overburden and plate tectonic causes. Estimates of stresses are based on two dimensional plane strain calculations using analytical formulae of elasticity theory and rock mechanics under suitable simplifying assumptions. Considerable attention is focussed on a point on the detachment at a depth of 17 km below mean sea level under the surface trace of the Main Central Thrust (MCT). According to recent views, great Himalayan earthquakes should nucleate in the detachment in the vicinity of such a point. Also many moderate earthquakes occur on the detachment similarly under the MCT. Vertical and horizontal normal stresses of 622 and 262 MPa and a corresponding shear stress of 26 MPa are estimated for this point due to topography, buoyancy and overburden. For fault friction coefficient varying between 0.3 to 1.0, estimates of plate tectonic stress required are in the range of 386 to 434 MPa, when the cumulative principal stresses are oriented favourably for reactivation of the detachment. Estimates of shear stress mobilized at the same point would be from 27 to 32 MPa for the identical range of fault friction coefficient. Our calculations suggest that presence of pore water in the fault zones is essential for reactivation. Pore pressure required is between 535 to 595 MPa for friction coefficient in the range of 0.3 to 1.0 and it is less than lithostatic stress of 603 MPa at the above point. For the specific nominal value of 0.65 for fault friction coefficient, the estimated values of plate tectonic stress, shear stress and pore pressure at the above point on the detachment are 410 MPa, 30 MPa and 580 MPa respectively. Similar estimates are obtained also for shallower points on the detachment up to the southern limit of the Outer Himalaya. Our estimates of the plate tectonic stress, shear stress and pore pressure for reactivation of upper crustal thrust faults compare favourably with those quoted in the literature.
pp 131-146 March 1995
We report the results of the South Indian Strain Measuring Experiment (SISME) designed to determine whether strain related to microseismicity in the past century may have deformed the networks of the 19th century Great Trigonometrical Survey of India (GTS). More than a dozen GTS points were measured between Mangalore, Madras, and Kanyakumari in southernmost India using GPS geodesy to determine regional deformation. Detailed measurements were made near two of the original baselines of the survey to determine the reliability of dilatational strain data for the network. The regional measurements revealed negligible regional dilatational (+ 11.2 + 10 microstrain) and shear strain changes (0.66± 1.2μradians) in the southernmost 530 km of India. In addition to these measurements, we determined the rate of northward and eastward motion of a point in Bangalore (1991–1994) in the ITRF92 reference frame to be 39 ± 3.5 mm/year, and 51 ± 11 mm/year respectively. This is consistent with NUVEL-1A plate motion estimate for India. Simultaneous measurements to a point near Kathmandu reveal that the Indian plate and the Southern Himalaya are moving approximately in unison, placing an upper limit on the rate of creep processes beneath the lesser Himalaya of ≈6 mm/year, and suggesting relatively rigid behavior of the Indian plate north of Bangalore. The stability of the Indian plate is confirmed by the absence of significant changes in the lengths of the two baselines at Bangalore and Cape Comorin, which, within the limits of experimental error have not changed since 1869. The measurements place an upper limit for recent deformation in the southern peninsula, and hence a lower limit for the renewal time for intraplate earthquakes in the region of approximately 10,000 years, assuming shear failure strain of approximately 100 μradians. This, in turn, implies that recurrence intervals for Peninsular Earthquakes far exceed the length of the written historic record, suggesting that the characterisation of seismic recurrence intervals from historical studies is likely to be fruitless. In contrast, the SISME experiment demonstrates that the noise level of geodetic studies based on 19th century GTS data is less than 0.02 μstrain/year, providing considerable scope for delineating regions of anomalously high seismogenic strain, by GPS measurements at all available trig points of the 19th century GTS survey.