• The challenge of predicting the occurrence of intense storms

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    • Keywords


      Sun: coronal mass ejection; geomagnetic storms; space weather

    • Abstract


      Geomagnetic super-storms of October and November 2003 are compared in order to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. Although these superstorms (DST < -300 nT) are associated with high speed CMEs, their DST indices show large variation. The most intense storm of November 20, 2003 (DSt∼ - 472 nT) had its source in a comparatively small active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare, while the others had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. An attempt has been made to implement a logistic regression model for the prediction of the occurrence of intense/superintense geomagnetic storms. The model parameters (regression coefficients) were estimated from a training data-set extracted from a data-set of 64 geo-effective CMEs observed during 1996–2002. The results indicate that logistic regression models can be effectively used for predicting the occurrence of major geomagnetic storms from a set of solar and interplanetary factors. The model validation shows that 100% of the intense storms (-200 nT < DSt < -100 nT) and only 50% of the super-intense (DST < -200 nT) storms could be correctly predicted.

    • Author Affiliations


      Nandita Srivastava1

      1. Udaipur Solar Observatory, Badi Road, P. O. Box 198, Udaipur - 313 001, India
    • Dates

  • Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy | News

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