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      https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jess/129/0190

    • Keywords

       

      Land-use changes; evaluation; hydrological responses; SWAT model; Longtan basin.

    • Abstract

       

      Compared to climate change, land-use changes were the main driving factors to short-term hydrological variety. To evaluate land-use types variation and quantify its hydrological impact, this paper identified the temporal-spatial features and simulated the hydrological process of different land-use types over the last two decades (1990–2010) based on the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Meanwhile, the possible influence of land-use changes on streamflow in the next 30 years (2020–2050) was also considered. Results indicated that (1) land-use types mainly constituted of forest land, grassland and cultivated land, which had the largest decreasing rate of 17.34 km$^{2}$/10a. At the same time, inter-conversion mainly conducted among the main land-use types and had a similar transfer structure for these two sub-periods (1990–2000, 2000–2010) during 1990–2010, with a more dramatic transformation in 2000–2010. (2) Simulated annual and monthly surface runoff did not vary greatly from 1990 to 2010 and presented a relatively uniform monthly distribution. At the same time, the increased vegetation coverage (forest land and grassland) can not only reduce surface runoff but also prevent peak flood with increasing and decreasing steeply. (3) Finally, hydrological variability to the future land-use change will not be intensive, which possibly related to the undeveloped regional economic and insignificant human activities. But it also needed some measures to maintain a balanced nature, such as the soil and water conservation measures and returning cultivated land to forest land and grassland.

      $\bf{Highlights}$

      $\bullet$Identifying land-use variation characteristics from 1990 to 2010.

      $\bullet$Calibrating and validating a satisfactory soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) for surface runoff simulation.

      $\bullet$Quantifying the hydrological response to the past land-use change.

      $\bullet$Predicting how different land-use scenarios affected streamflow.

      $\bullet$Experiment in the karstic basin, which is lack of related research.

    • Author Affiliations

       

      GUIYAN MO1 YONGXIANG ZHANG2 YA HUANG3 CHONGXUN MO3 QING YANG3

      1. College of Computer and Information, Hohai University, Nanjing 211 100, China.
      2. School of Management Science and Engineering, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning 530 003, China.
      3. College of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning 530 004, China.
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    • Supplementary Material

       
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