• Application of hind cast in identifying extreme events over India

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      https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jess/129/0163

    • Keywords

       

      Retrospective forecast; re-forecast; extreme temperature; extreme rainfall; India.

    • Abstract

       

      India Meteorological Department (IMD) is operationally producing forecasts at T1534 resolution using NCMRWF GFS (NGFS) model and biases are reported in some regions. In order to identify the model biases and applying necessary correction measures to improve forecast, retrospective forecast is carried out for the 20 yrs period from 1999–2018 using operational version of NGFS model. In this study, model’s ability to predict extreme temperature and rainfall events in Indian region irrespective of model biases is investigated. It is found that model is able to predict extreme temperature events accurately with sufficiently long lead time (7 days). In case of extreme rainfall at shorter lead time (3 days), model is able to predict accurately and accuracy decreases with increase in lead time. Employing bias correction methods reduced large biases in some regions.

    • Author Affiliations

       

      JOHNY C J1 PRASAD V S1

      1. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, A-50, Sector 62, Noida 201 309, India.
    • Dates

       
  • Journal of Earth System Science | News

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