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    • Keywords


      High-resolution global forecast system; GFS model; monsoon rain; verification.

    • Abstract


      A global forecast system model at a horizontal resolution of T1534 ($\sim$12.5 km) has been evaluated for the monsoon seasons of 2016 and 2017 over the Indian region. It is for the first time that such a high-resolution global model is being run operationally for monsoon weather forecast. A detailed validation of the model therefore is essential. The validation of mean monsoon rainfall for the season and individual months indicates a tendency for wet bias over the land region in all the forecast lead time. The probability distribution of forecast rainfall shows an overestimation (underestimation) of rainfall for the lighter (heavy) categories. However, the probability distribution functions of moderate rainfall categories are found to be reasonable. The model shows fidelity in capturing the extremely heavy rainfall categories with shorter lead times. The model reasonably predicts the large-scale parameters associated with the Indian summer monsoon, particularly, the vertical profile of the moisture. The diurnal rainfall variability forecasts in all lead times show certain biases over different land and oceanic regions and, particularly, over the north–west Indian region. Although the model has a reasonable fidelity in capturing the spatio-temporal variability of the monsoon rain, further development is needed to enhance the skill of forecast of a higher rain rate with a longer lead time.

    • Author Affiliations


      Mukhopadhyay P1 Prasad V S2 Phani Murali Krishna R1 Medha Deshpande1 Malay Ganai1 Snehlata Tirkey1 Sahadat Sarkar1 Tanmoy Goswami1 Johny C J2 Kumar Roy1 Mahakur M1 Durai V R3 Rajeevan M4

      1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India.
      2. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, A-50, Sector-62, Noida, UP, India.
      3. India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India.
      4. Ministry of Earth Science, Government of India, Prithvi Bhavan, New Delhi 110 003, India.
    • Dates

  • Journal of Earth System Science | News

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