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      https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jess/127/06/0078

    • Keywords

       

      Base flow; climate change; Gurupura catchment; Mann–Kendall; RCM; SWAT.

    • Abstract

       

      The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow in a west flowing river originating in the Western Ghats of India. The longterm trend analysis for 110 yr of meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) was carried out using the modified Mann–Kendall trend test and the magnitude of the trend was quantified using the Sen’s slope estimator. The Regional Climate Model (RCM), COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) simulated daily weather data of baseline (1951–2005) and future RCP 4.5 scenarios (2006–2060) were used to run the hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow. Significant changes were observed with regard to rainfall, which have shown decreasing trend at the rate of 2.63 mm per year for the historical and 8.85 mm per year for RCP 4.5 future scenarios. The average temperature was found to be increasing at 0.10 ◦C per decade for both historical and future scenarios. The impact of climate change on the annual streamflow yielded a decreasing trend at the rate of $\rm{1.2 Mm^{3}}$ per year and $\rm{2.56 Mm^{3}}$, respectively for the past and future scenarios. The present work also investigates the capability of SWAT to simulate the groundwater flow. The simulated results are compared with the recession limb of the hydrograph and were found to be reasonably accurate.

    • Author Affiliations

       

      Sharannya T M1 Amogh Mudbhatkal1 Mahesha A1

      1. Department of Applied Mechanics and Hydraulics, National Institute of Technology, Karnataka, Surathkal, Mangalore 575 025, India.
    • Dates

       
  • Journal of Earth System Science | News

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