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      Permanent link:
      https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jess/125/07/1353-1363

    • Keywords

       

      Tropical cyclones; cyclogenesis; Dvorak’s technique; scatterometeric winds

    • Abstract

       

      Indian region is severely affected by the tropical cyclones (TCs) due to the long coast line of about 7500 km. Hence, whenever any low level circulation (LLC) forms over the Indian Seas, the prediction of its intensification into a TC is very essential for the management of TC disaster. Satellite Application Centre (SAC) of Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Ahmedabad, has developed a techniqueto predict TCs based on scatterometer-derived winds from the polar orbiting satellite, QuikSCAT and Oceansat-II. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has acquired the technique and verified it for the years 2010–2013 for operational use. The model is based on the concept of analogs of the sea surfacewind distribution at the stage of LLC or vortex (T1.0) as per Dvorak’s classifications, which eventually leads to cyclogenesis (T2.5). The results indicate that the developed model could predict cyclogenesis with a probability of detection of 61% and critical success index of 0.29. However, it shows high overpredictionof the model is better over the Bay of Bengal than over Arabian Sea and during post-monsoon season (September–December) than in pre-monsoon season (March–June).

    • Author Affiliations

       

      Suman Goyal1 M Mohapatra1 Ashish Kumar1 S K Dube2 Kushagra Rajendra3 P Goswami1

      1. India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India.
      2. Amity University, Jaipur, Rajasthan 303 007, India.
      3. Amity University, Gurgaon, Haryana 122 413, India.
    • Dates

       
  • Journal of Earth System Science | News

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