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      https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jess/117/S2/0671-0682

    • Keywords

       

      Epistemic; aleatory; uncertainties; hazard assessment; maximum magnitude.

    • Abstract

       

      In the present paper, the parameters affecting the uncertainties on the estimation of $M_{\max}$ have been investigated by exploring different methodologies being used in the analysis of seismicity catalogue and estimation of seismicity parameters. A critical issue to be addressed before any scientific analysis is to assess the quality, consistency, and homogeneity of the data. The empirical relationships between different magnitude scales have been used for conversions for homogenization of seismicity catalogues to be used for further seismic hazard assessment studies. An endeavour has been made to quantify the uncertainties due to magnitude conversions and the seismic hazard parameters are then estimated using different methods to consider the epistemic uncertainty in the process. The study area chosen is around Delhi. The 𝑏 value and the magnitude of completeness for the four seismogenic sources considered around Delhi varied more than 40% using the three catalogues compiled based on different magnitude conversion relationships. The effect of the uncertainties has been then shown on the estimation of $M_{\max}$ and the probabilities of occurrence of different magnitudes. It has been emphasized to consider the uncertainties and their quantification to carry out seismic hazard assessment and in turn the seismic microzonation.

    • Author Affiliations

       

      Girish C Joshi1 Mukat Lal Sharma1

      1. Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand 247 667, India.
    • Dates

       
  • Journal of Earth System Science | News

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