• Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

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      https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jess/116/01/0073-0079

    • Keywords

       

      Indian summer monsoon; predictors of AISMR; multiple regression.

    • Abstract

       

      The search for new parameters for predicting the all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) has been an important aspect of long range prediction of AISMR. In recent years NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has improved the geographical coverage and availability of the data and this can be easily updated. In this study using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data on temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels, few predictors are identified and a prediction scheme is developed for predicting AISMR. The regression coeffcients are computed by stepwise multiple regression procedure. The final equation explained 87% of the variance with multiple correlation coeffcient (MCC), 0.934. The estimated rainfall in the El-Nino year of 1997 was -1.7% as against actual of 4.4%. The estimated rainfall deficiency in both the recent deficient years of 2002 and 2004 were -19.5% and -8.5% as against observed -20.4% and -11.5% respectively.

    • Author Affiliations

       

      A A Munot1 K Krishna Kumar1

      1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411 008, India.
    • Dates

       
  • Journal of Earth System Science | News

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