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      Permanent link:
      https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jess/112/01/0095-0111

    • Keywords

       

      Summer monsoon; energy budgets; systematic errors; interseasonal variability

    • Abstract

       

      In this study, we present the mean seasonal features of the Indian summer monsoon circulation in the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) global data assimilation and forecast system. The large-scale budgets of heat and moisture are examined in the analyzed and model atmosphere. The daily operational analyses and forecasts (day 1 through day 5) produced for the summer seasons comprising June, July and August of 1995 and 1993 have been considered for the purpose. The principal aim of the study is two-fold. Primarily, to comprehend the influence of the systematic errors over the Indian summer monsoon, secondarily, to analyze the performance of the model in capturing the interseasonal variability.

      The heat and moisture balances show reduction in the influx of heat and moisture in the model forecasts compared to the analyzed atmosphere over the monsoon domain. Consequently, the diabatic heating also indicates reducing trend with increase in the forecast period. In effect, the strength of Indian summer monsoon, which essentially depends on these parameters, weakens considerably in the model forecasts. Despite producing feeble monsoon circulation, the model captures interseasonal variability realistically. Although, 1995 and 1993 are fairly normal monsoon seasons, the former received more rainfall compared to the latter in certain pockets of the monsoon domain. This is clearly indicated by the analyzed and model atmosphere in terms of energetics.

    • Author Affiliations

       

      P L S Rao1 U C Mohanty1 P V S Raju1 Gopal Iyengar1 2

      1. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi - 110 016, India
      2. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Mausam Bhavan Complex, Lodi Road, New Delhi - 110 003, India

    • Dates

       
      Published
      March 2003
      Manuscript received
      30 April 2001
      Manuscript revised
      22 April 2002

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