• Probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes in the Himalaya

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    • Keywords


      Himalaya; great earthquakes; probabilities; seismic hazard

    • Abstract


      Long-term conditional probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes along the Himalaya plate boundary seismic zone have been estimated. The chance of occurrence of at least one great earthquake along this seismic zone over a period of 100 years (beginning the year 1999) is estimated to be about 0.89. The 100-year probability of such an earthquake occurring in the Kashmir seismic gap is about 0.27, in the central seismic gap about 0.52 and in the Assam gap about 0.21. The 25-year probabilities of their occurrence in these gaps are 0.07, 0.17, and 0.05 respectively. These probability estimates may be used profitably to assess the seismic hazard in the Himalaya and the adjoining Ganga plains.

    • Author Affiliations


      K N Khattri1

      1. 100 Rajendra Nagar, Dehradun - 248 001
    • Dates

  • Journal of Earth System Science | News

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      Posted on July 25, 2019

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