• A note on the performance of climatic forecasts for Asia based on the periodic portion of the data: 1986–1987

• # Fulltext

https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jess/102/01/0105-0112

• # Keywords

Climate forecasts; skill scores

• # Abstract

Between 1973 and 1986 a group at the University of Wisconsin worked on the use of the periodic portion of climatic time series with the aim of exploring the potential for year-or-more in advance forecasting. This paper reports on the real time verification of the last sets of forecasts made by the group.

From spectra of temperature and cube-rooted precipitation the dominant frequencies were chosen. These were usually related to tidal frequencies. A Fourier series of these dominant terms was then fitted to the dependent data set and future values calculated. These were analyzed for forecast skill, and the skillful Fourier series retained. Real time forecasts were then made. Verification shows a low probability that the forecast skills were obtained by chance. It is suggested that the periodic term might be a useful addition to more standard approaches to long range forecasting.