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    • Keywords


      Intermediate term prediction; M8 algorithm; pattern recognition; times of increased probability

    • Abstract


      The seismicity associated with the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates, from 1964 to August 1990 was scanned using the M8 algorithm with a view to identify the times of increased probabilities (TIPs) of the earthquakes of magnitudes greater or equal to 6·4 that occurred during the period from 1970 to August 1990. 23 out of 28 earthquakes (M ⩾ 6·4) have been predicted. These were preceded by specific activation of the earthquake flow which was picked up by the M8 algorithm. The earthquake of August 1988 in the Himalaya could not be predicted, the other four unpredictable earthquakes occurred in the early dates of the catalogue (1970–1971) and hence their TIPs could not be diagnosed. Two current alarms are diagnosed, one in the Indo-Burmese arc and the other in the Hindukush-Pamir region.

      The algorithm provides the correlation between the earthquakes and their area of activation (both in time as well as in space) which, when compared with the local geology, may help to comment on the present day status of the seismic features on the surface.

    • Author Affiliations


      V K Gahalaut1 2 I V Kuznetsov1 3 V G Kosobokov1 3 A M Gabrielov1 3 V I Keilis-Borok1 3

      1. International Institute for Earth, Environmental and Marine Sciences (HEM), P.O. Box. 586, Trieste - 34100, Italy
      2. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Roorkee, Roorkee, U.P. - 247 667, India
      3. International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Warshavskoye sh. 79, K.2, Moscow - 113 556, U.S.S.R.
    • Dates

  • Journal of Earth System Science | News

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