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    • The chaotic time series of Indian monsoon rainfall and its prediction

      Sujit Basu H I Andharia

      Volume 101 Issue 1 March 1992 pp 27-34

    • Fulltext

       

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      Permanent link:
      https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jess/101/01/0027-0034

    • Keywords

       

      Chaos; strange attractor; Indian monsoon rainfall

    • Abstract

       

      The time series of Indian summer monsoon rainfall for the period 1871–1989 has been analysed using the method of deterministic chaos. It is found that a strange attractor underlies the time series implying the existence of a prediction function. This function has been approximated by a second-degree polynomial, involving the rainfalls of the past seven years and the coefficients have been estimated by least squares fit. The interannual variations of actual and computed rainfalls have been presented for a comparative study.

    • Author Affiliations

       

      Sujit Basu1 H I Andharia1

      1. Meteorology and Oceanography Division, Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad - 380 053, India

    • Dates

       
      Published
      March 1992
      Manuscript received
      4 July 1991
      Manuscript revised
      11 November 1991

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