• Application of principal component analysis to understand variability of rainfall

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      Permanent link:
      https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jess/100/02/0105-0126

    • Keywords

       

      Monsoon; rainfall variability; principal components; empirical orthogonal functions; eigenvalues; spatial structure; predictability; transition probability

    • Abstract

       

      The usefulness of principal component analysis for understanding the temporal variability of monsoon rainfall is studied. Monthly rainfall data of Karnataka, spread on 50 stations for a period of 82 years have been analysed for interseasonal and interannual variabilities. A subset of the above data comprising 10 stations from the coherent west zone of Karnataka has also been investigated to bring out statistically significant interannual signals in the southwest monsoon rainfall. Conditional probabilities are proposed for a few above normal/below normal transitions. A sample prediction exercise for June–July using such a transition probability has been found to be successful.

    • Author Affiliations

       

      R N Iyengar1

      1. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore - 560 012, India
    • Dates

       
  • Journal of Earth System Science | News

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