Assimilation of Doppler weather radar observations in a mesoscale model for the prediction of rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems
S Abhilash1,∗, Someshwar Das2, S R Kalsi3, M Das Gupta2, K Mohankumar1,
J P George2, S K Banerjee3, S B Thampi4 and D Pradhan5
1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Cochin 682 016, India.
2National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida 201 307, India.
3India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India.
4Cyclone Detection Radar, India Meteorological Department, Rajaji Salai, Chennai 600 001, India.
5Cyclone Detection Radar, Regional Meteorological Center, India Meteorological Department, Kolkata, India.
∗e-mail: abhimets@yahoo.com

Abstract: Obtaining an accurate initial state is recognized as one of the biggest challenges in accurate model prediction of convective events. This work is the first attempt in utilizing the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Doppler radar data in a numerical model for the prediction of mesoscale convective complexes around Chennai and Kolkata. Three strong convective events both over Chennai and Kolkata have been considered for the present study. The simulation experiments have been carried out using fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) mesoscale model (MM5) version 3.5.6. The variational data assimilation approach is one of the most promising tools available for directly assimilating the mesoscale observations in order to improve the initial state. The horizontal wind derived from the DWR has been used alongwith other conventional and non-conventional data in the assimilation system. The preliminary results from the three dimensional variational (3DVAR) experiments are encouraging. The simulated rainfall has also been compared with that derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The encouraging result from this study can be the basis for further investigation of the direct assimilation of radar reflectivity data in 3DVAR system. The present study indicates that Doppler radar data assimilation improves the initial field and enhances the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) skill.


Surface and upper air meteorological features during onset phase of 2003 monsoon
O P Singh∗, H R Hatwar and Onkari Prasad
India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India.
∗e-mail: opsingh@imdmail.gov.in

Abstract: The second campaign of the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX-II) was conducted in two phases viz., March–April and May–June 2003. In the present work, the buoy and ocean research vessel data collected during the second phase of ARMEX-II have been analysed to bring out the characteristic features of monsoon onset. The results have shown that the thermodynamical features such as build up of lower tropospheric instability and increased height of zero degree isotherm occurred about a week before the monsoon onset over Kerala and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. There was a sharp fall in the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa, and the height of zero degree isotherm about 2–3 days before the monsoon onset.
The flux of sensible heat was positive (sea to air) over south Arabian Sea during the onset phase. Over the Bay of Bengal higher negative (air to sea) values of sensible flux prevailed before the  monsoon onset which became less negative with the advance of monsoon over that region. The pre-onset period was characterized by large sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Arabian Sea with rapid decrease towards north of the warm pool region. The buoy observations have shown that SST remained close to 30.5◦C in the warm pool region during the pre-onset period in 2003 but only 2–3 degrees away (north of this region) SSTs were as low as 28.5–29◦C. An interesting aspect of sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the Indian seas during the onset phase of summer monsoon 2003 was undoubtedly, the highest SLP in the warm pool region inspite of very high SSTs.


Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea
Saralees Nadarajah1 and Dongseok Choi2
1School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester M60 1QD, UK.
e-mail: saralees.nadarajah@manchester.ac.uk
2Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University,
Portland, Oregon 97201-3098, USA.

Abstract: Annual maxima of daily rainfall for the years 1961–2001 are modeled for five locations in South Korea (chosen to give a good geographical representation of the country). The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to data from each location to describe the extremes of rainfall and to predict its future behavior. We find evidence to suggest that the Gumbel distribution provides the most reasonable model for four of the five locations considered. We explore the possibility of trends in the data but find no evidence suggesting trends. We derive estimates of 10, 50, 100, 1000, 5000, 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 year return levels for daily rainfall and describe how they vary with the locations. This paper provides the first application of extreme value distributions to rainfall data from South Korea.


Identification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in parts of Western Ghats region of Karnataka
B Venkatesh∗ and Mathew K Jose∗∗
National Institute of Hydrology, Hanuman Nagar, Belgaum 590 001, Karnataka, India.
∗e-mail: bvenki30@yahoo.com
∗∗e-mail: mathewkjose@yahoo.com

Abstract: In view of the ongoing environmental and ecological changes in the Western Ghats, it is important to understand the environmental parameters pertaining to the sustenance of the region. Rainfall is one such parameter governing the hydrological processes crucial to agriculture planning, afforestation and eco-system management. Therefore, it is essential to understand rainfall distribution and its variation in relevance to such activities. The present study is an attempt to gain in-depth understanding in this direction. The study area comprises of one coastal district and its adjoining areas in Karnataka State. Mean annual rainfall data of 93 rain gauge stations distributed over the study area for a period of 10–50 years are used for the study. In order to assess the variation of rainfall across the ghats, several bands were constructed parallel to the latitudes to facilitate the analysis. The statistical analyses conducted included cluster analysis and analysis of variance. The study revealed that there exist three distinct zones of rainfall regimes in the study area, namely, Coastal zone, Transition zone and Malanad zone. It is observed that, the maximum rainfall occurs on the windward side ahead of the geographical peak. Further, mean monthly rainfall distribution over the zones has been depicted to enable agricultural planning in the study area.


Vertical propagation of baroclinic Kelvin waves along the west coast of India
D Nethery1,2,∗ and D Shankar1
1National Institute of Oceanography, Goa 403 004, India.
2Ecole Normale Sup´erieure, Paris, France.
∗e-mail: daniel.nethery@ens.fr

Abstract: A linear, continuously stratified ocean model is used to investigate vertical propagation of remotely forced, baroclinic Kelvin waves along the Indian west coast. The extent of vertical propagation over  the length of the coast is found to be an increasing function of the forcing frequency. Simulations show that, over the length of the Indian west coast, vertical propagation is limited  at annual and semi-annual periods, but significant at periods shorter than about 120 days. This has two major consequences. First, the depth of subsurface currents associated with these frequencies varies substantially along the coast. Second, baroclinic Kelvin waves generated in the Bay of Bengal at periods shorter than about 120 days have negligible influence on surface currents along the north Indian west coast.


Discharge estimation from planform characters of the Shedhi River, Gujarat alluvial plain: Present and past
Alpa Sridhar
Department of Geology, The Maharaja Sayajirao University of Baroda, Vadodara 390 002, India.

Abstract: In the absence of long-term hydrologic and streamflow records an understanding of river morphology (present and past) can help delineate changes in magnitudes of water and sediment discharges. The relict drainage system of Gujarat alluvial plain provides an opportunity to reconstruct the palaeochannel morphology-related discharge estimations. In this paper, based on the geomorphological evidence and channel geometry, an attempt has been made to reconstruct the palaeohydrological condition in the Shedhi River during the Holocene. A comparison of the present day channel of the Shedhi River with that of its palaeo counterpart reveals that the former was carrying much higher bankfull discharge (∼5500m3 s−1) as compared to the present (∼200m3 s−1).
This is attributed to a larger drainage area and enhanced precipitation in the Shedhi River basin.



2-D Crustal thermal structure along Thuadara–Sindad DSS profile across Narmada–Son lineament, central India
S N Rai∗ and S Thiagarajan
National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad 500 007, India.
e-mail: snrai@ngri.res.in snrai−ngri@yahoo.co.in

Abstract: Central India is traversed by a WSW–ENE trending Narmada–Son lineament (NSL) which is characterized by the presence of numerous hot springs, feeder dykes for Deccan Traps and seismicity all along its length. It is divided in two parts by the Barwani–Sukta Fault (BSF). To the west of this fault a graben exists, whereas to the east the basement is uplifted between Narmada North Fault (NNF) and Narmada South Fault (NSF). The present work deals with the 2-D thermal modeling to delineate the crustal thermal structure of the western part of NSL region  along the Thuadara–Sindad Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS) profile which runs almost in the N–S direction across the NSL. Numerical results of the model reveal that the conductive surface heat flow value in the region under consideration varies between 45 and 47mW/m2. Out of which 23mW/m2 is the contribution from the mantle heat flow and the remaining from within the crust. The Curie depth is found to vary between 46 and 47 km and is in close agreement with the earlier reported Curie depth estimated from the analysis of MAGSAT data. The Moho temperature varies between 470 and 500◦C. This study suggests that this western part of central Indian region is characterized by low mantle heat flow which in turn makes the lower crust brittle and amenable to the occurrence of deep focused earthquakes such as Satpura (1938) earthquake.


Wave propagation in a general anisotropic poroelastic medium: Biot’s theories and homogenisation theory
M D Sharma
Department of Mathematics, Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra 136 119, India.
e-mail: mohan−here@rediffmail.com

Abstract: Anisotropic wave propagation is studied in a fluid-saturated porous medium, using two different approaches. One is the dynamic approach of Biot’s theories. The other approach known as homogenisation theory, is based on the averaging process to derive macroscopic equations from the microscopic equations of motion. The medium considered is a general anisotropic poroelastic (APE) solid with a viscous fluid saturating its pores of anisotropic permeability. The wave propagation phenomenon in a saturated porous medium is explained through two relations. One defines modified Christoffel equations for the propagation of plane harmonic waves in the medium. The other defines a matrix to relate the relative displacement of fluid particles to the displacement of solid particles. The modified Christoffel equations are solved further to get a quartic equation whose roots represent complex velocities of the four attenuating quasi-waves in the medium. These complex velocities define the phase velocities of propagation and quality factors for attenuation of all the quasi-waves propagating along a given phase direction in three-dimensional space. The derivations in the mathematical models from different theories are compared in order to work out the equivalence between them. The variations of phase velocities and attenuation factors with the direction of phase propagation are computed, for a realistic numerical model. Differences between the velocities and attenuations of quasi-waves from the two approaches are exhibited numerically.